New research suggests that the Indigenous population of Australia was much larger before European colonization than previously believed. Estimates now suggest that up to 2.2 million Indigenous people lived in Australia before the arrival of the First Fleet in 1788. This figure is significantly higher than earlier estimates, such as the 250,000 figure proposed by anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown in the 1930s. The study, conducted by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures (CIEHF), combined ethnographic observations, archaeological findings, genetic data, and environmental modeling to arrive at the new estimate. Researchers argue that earlier numbers were too low due to the lack of systematic censuses and the impact of deadly diseases and violence following European contact. The study reveals that the Indigenous population experienced a dramatic decline after colonization. It estimates that 2.06 million excess deaths occurred between 1788 and 1861, reducing the population to about 7% of its pre-colonial size by 1861. The research highlights the devastating effects of colonization, including the spread of diseases such as smallpox, measles, influenza, tuberculosis, and typhoid. These diseases, combined with massacres and the loss of land, had a catastrophic impact on Indigenous communities. Co-author Professor Corey Bradshaw noted that massacre databases are likely underestimated by an "order of magnitude" due to the lack of documentation by colonial settlers. The findings emphasize the importance of recognizing the demographic catastrophe caused by colonization and its long-term effects on Indigenous communities. This includes intergenerational trauma and the need for future policies that address historical injustices. The research also calls for a re-evaluation of historical records and the use of multiple approaches to better understand population histories. According to the study, the Indigenous population in Australia has grown since the 1950s but remains at about 37% of the estimated pre-colonial size as of the 2021 census. This means that, at the current growth rate, it would take until around 2047 for the Indigenous population to reach the same size it was in 1788. The study underscores the need for a more accurate understanding of Australia’s history and the ongoing impact of colonization on Indigenous communities. It highlights the importance of incorporating diverse data sources and historical perspectives to build a more complete picture of the past. By recognizing the scale of the demographic loss, the research aims to inform more just and equitable policies for Indigenous Australians today.