European airfares to rise sharply in 2027

Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, predicted during a press conference in Brussels on October 20 that airfares in Europe will experience the largest increase in history over the next 12 months, with a projected rise of 10 to 20% in 2027. This forecast follows a period of already rising prices, which have been driven by multiple factors including fuel costs and market dynamics.

Airfare prices up in France

In France, data from the Direction générale de l'aviation civile (DGAC) for September 2026 shows a 10.6% increase in flight tickets departing from France over the past year. International routes have seen a more pronounced rise, particularly to North America (+14.2%) and Latin America (+14%), while domestic flights have increased by a more moderate 3.7%.

Jet fuel prices have surged

The price of jet fuel has more than doubled since the start of the Middle East conflict in late February. According to the Fédération nationale de l'aviation et de ses métiers (FNAM), the cost of jet fuel rose from approximately $750 per ton before the conflict to an average of $1,550 in September, reaching $1,590 on October 8. This increase is putting significant pressure on airlines, as fuel accounts for nearly a third of their operating costs.

Airlines' fuel hedging contracts expiring

Several major European airlines have been relatively shielded from this surge in fuel prices due to financial hedging contracts that allowed them to purchase fuel at fixed prices before the conflict. However, this protection is gradually expiring. Ryanair, for example, had secured 80% of its fuel needs at $67 per barrel until March 2027 but is now only covered for 15% of its needs.

Fewer seats and higher fares expected

O'Leary also anticipates a reduction in the number of available seats in Europe in 2027 due to company failures, industry consolidation, and route cancellations. This could lead to higher fares if demand remains strong. Ryanair is contributing to this reduction by cutting 20 routes and over a million seats in Belgium for its winter program, in response to anticipated increases in airport taxes.

French airlines seek government help

The situation has raised concerns among French airlines, with the FNAM calling on the government for exceptional measures to help airlines manage their rising energy costs. At the same time, the sector is facing a decline in passenger numbers, with French air traffic falling by 0.5% over the first eight months of 2026.