India's recent GDP growth figures, which showed a 7.8% expansion for the latest quarter, have sparked debate among economists and critics. The numbers, which were higher than the expected 7%, were praised by the government as a "herculean feat." However, former finance secretary Subhash Garg, now a critic, argues the growth is exaggerated. He claims the government reduced last year's GDP figures to make this year's numbers look better, suggesting the real growth might be only 2.6%. His comments, made on a television channel, went viral and triggered a wave of discussions and op-eds across the media.
Supporters of the government have dismissed these claims, but there is a growing concern over the lack of transparency and statistical credibility in India's economic data. Critics argue that the government has weakened the integrity of its data infrastructure, using economic data for political purposes and creating a trust deficit. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) rated India's national accounts data a 'C' on a four-point scale, the second-lowest grade, citing outdated methodologies, unexplained discrepancies between GDP calculated from the production and expenditure sides, and a lack of seasonal data.
Economist R Nagaraj has pointed out that the government has changed methodologies for various datasets, including employment numbers, poverty numbers, health data, and consumption data, raising questions about the accuracy of these figures. He also noted that some key officials who led important surveys have been removed, adding to the skepticism. In 2019, a Business Standard journalist revealed that the government had not published an official report showing unemployment at a 45-year high of 6.1%, leading to resignations from two expert members of the National Statistical Commission. The figures were only released months later.
The census, delayed for the first time since India's independence in 2021, has also raised concerns. Economists warn that relying on outdated demographic data can lead to inequitable allocation of welfare entitlements. The first phase of the latest census finally began in April 2026. Nagaraj, who served on a subcommittee in 2014, noted discrepancies between the figures discussed in the committee and those in the final report, with one figure inflated by 108%.
Government economists, such as Shamika Ravi, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the prime minister, reject the criticism, calling it a "noisy and very ill-informed debate." She argues that political leanings, not data, are behind the criticism and that the IMF's 'C' rating is the same as China's. However, the sticking point remains the trustworthiness of the underlying data used.
Economists emphasize the importance of data quality for informed policymaking. Incorrect data can lead to bad policy, as highlighted by economist Reetika Khera, who points to gaps in basic statistics such as urbanisation and literacy numbers due to the delayed census. She estimates that approximately 100 million people who should be covered by food subsidies are being deprived due to outdated population numbers.
The controversy has drawn attention beyond India, with Sri Lanka's Daily FT newspaper commenting on the situation. Meanwhile, other developments include the upcoming Lollapalooza 2027 in Mumbai, featuring British pop star Olivia Dean and Indian artists like Ricky Kej and Aditya Gadhvi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has again urged Indians to refrain from buying gold and traveling abroad to conserve foreign exchange reserves. The 2027 census has raised concerns over new questions about identity documents, parents' religion, and place of birth, similar to the controversial National Population Register. Additionally, the Election Commission's revision of voting lists has led to the deletion of about 4.76 million voters in Delhi, with 130 million names dropped from draft rolls in 30 states and union territories.
India's GDP Data Dispute Highlights Concerns Over Economic Transparency
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