Smartphone market sees major decline

The global smartphone market has seen its biggest drop since 2012, with a 20% decrease in device shipments during the third quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. This is the lowest level in 14 years and follows a second consecutive quarter of decline, driven by a shortage of key memory components.

Memory shortage drives up prices

A global shortage of DRAM and NAND memory, essential for storing data in smartphones, has caused prices to increase by over 300% in one year. This has made smartphones more expensive for consumers and forced manufacturers to raise prices while reducing the number of devices they produce. The shortage is expected to last until at least 2028.

French consumers feel the impact

In France, smartphone prices have risen by an average of 20% since January 2026. The average selling price is expected to reach $581 in 2026, a 27.6% increase from 2025. This increase is straining household budgets, leading many to delay replacing their devices or keep their current phones longer than usual.

Market leaders gain ground

Despite the overall decline, major smartphone manufacturers like Apple and Samsung have seen their market shares increase. Apple reached a 22% market share in the third quarter of 2026, up from 18% a year earlier, while Samsung maintained its leadership with a 23% share. Both companies have managed to limit their shipment declines, benefiting from the crisis.

Chinese brands struggle

Chinese manufacturers that focused on affordable smartphones, such as Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo, have faced significant declines. Xiaomi's shipments dropped by more than 30%, and its market share fell from 14% to 10%. Oppo and Vivo each saw over 20% drops in shipments. These companies are finding it difficult to absorb the rising costs of components without affecting their business models.

Long-term effects and possible changes

IDC predicts a 16.7% annual decline in smartphone shipments for 2026, with no relief expected until 2028. This could lead to longer device lifespans, growth in the refurbished market, and pressure on manufacturers to make phones easier to repair. However, the immediate impact on consumer budgets is clear, making smartphones a more deliberate purchase rather than a common one. The future of the market remains uncertain, with questions about whether it will return to its previous affordability or shift permanently toward a premium model.