Anthropic, an artificial intelligence research company, has released an economic model that explores how AI might affect the U.S. economy by 2030. The study outlines three potential scenarios, ranging from a moderate impact similar to that of the Internet to a radical transformation that could boost the U.S. GDP by 32%. The report highlights that while AI could drive economic growth, it might also lead to job displacement and increased wealth inequality, particularly between those who own capital and those who work for wages. In the "modest" scenario, AI would act mainly as an assistive tool, affecting about 4% of tasks. This would result in a slight economic boost, increasing the U.S. GDP to $34.1 trillion and raising annual growth to 2.4%. In the "intermediate" scenario, AI would take over 12% of tasks, replacing humans in about half of intellectual jobs. This would lead to a GDP of $36.3 trillion and a growth rate of 5.4%. The "extreme" scenario envisions AI taking on 30% of tasks with near autonomy, driven by continuous improvements in AI systems. This could raise the GDP to $44.4 trillion and increase annual growth to 15.4%. The report also highlights the potential impact on the labor market. In the modest scenario, unemployment would rise slightly to 3.9%, while in the intermediate scenario, it could climb to 4.6%. Knowledge workers, such as programmers or call center agents, may face wage stagnation and might need to retrain for manual jobs like electrician or nurse. In the extreme scenario, unemployment could rise sharply to 11.9%, with knowledge workers facing a 11% drop in wages. The distribution of AI-generated wealth is a major concern. The report suggests that while overall wealth could increase, the share of income going to labor could fall from 60% to 45%, with capital owners capturing a larger portion. Although the model indicates that the economy could function well macroeconomically, it leaves unclear how the benefits of AI will be redistributed among the population. Bill Gates has warned that AI could cause an economic catastrophe due to its broad impact on jobs and has called for government intervention, such as robot taxes and laws to reserve certain jobs for humans. Meanwhile, Anthropic’s CEO, Dario Amodei, has urged the AI industry to slow down its development to better secure AI models against existential risks. This call for caution has support from prominent figures like Sam Altman of OpenAI and Elon Musk of SpaceX. However, some critics argue that this proposal could be an attempt to regulate the AI sector in favor of large companies like Anthropic, potentially hindering competition and innovation. In early 2026, Anthropic noted that AI adoption was much higher in wealthy countries, potentially increasing global inequality. A 2026 survey of 6,000 executives found that most did not believe AI improved productivity, yet some companies still reduced their workforce citing AI implementation. This suggests a complex relationship between AI and productivity, where the economic benefits may be difficult to measure or attribute.