Turkey's foreign and domestic policies linked

Özgur Özel, founder of the New Party (Yeni Parti), stated that Turkey's external posture is closely linked to its internal situation, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeking to elevate Turkey to a major regional actor.

Erdogan's foreign initiatives and domestic challenges

Erdogan has pursued diplomatic, military, and commercial initiatives in Syria, Iraq, Central Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, contrasting with domestic challenges such as authoritarianism, muzzling of the opposition, and economic difficulties including high inflation.

Opposition figures arrested

The regime has arrested key opposition figures, such as Ekrem Imamoglu, the elected mayor of Ankara, to prevent him from running in the 2028 presidential elections. Özel left the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), after a court decision dissolved its leadership, forming Yeni Parti and leaving the CHP weakened.

Erdogan's bid for third term

Erdogan aims to run for a third presidential term by manipulating constitutional rules, seeking a three-fifths majority to repeal term limits. He has passed the "Law on the Strengthening of National Solidarity and Social Integration" to disarm the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), facilitating Kurdish reintegration into Turkish and Iraqi societies.

Regional defense agreements and credibility concerns

Turkey has strengthened regional ties, including a tripartite defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, known as the "Mecca Pact," which commits each party to defend the others against attacks. This agreement has raised questions about its credibility and the extent of military commitments.

Economic struggles and structural weaknesses

Domestically, Turkey faces economic challenges, including a depreciating currency, high inflation, and a trade deficit. The Turkish economy has suffered from structural weaknesses, including reliance on energy imports and a rentier economy, exacerbated by mismanagement and corruption.

Regional involvement in Syria and conflicts

Regionally, Turkey has taken an active role in the Syrian conflict, supporting the removal of Bashar al-Assad and forging ties with Damascus. It has also clashed with Israel over policies in Gaza and maritime disputes in the Mediterranean. In the Caucasus, Turkey is working toward a peace agreement with Armenia, contingent on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan.

EU's stance on Turkey's accession

The European Union has not considered Turkey's accession, despite continued economic and strategic cooperation. Analysts note that Turkey's authoritarian drift and economic struggles are counterbalanced by its strategic positioning, making it a complex partner for Europe.

Political landscape and AKP's challenges

The internal political landscape is shifting, with the formation of Yeni Parti and the weakening of the CHP. The AKP faces challenges in maintaining its dominance, with defections and internal divisions. The regime's efforts to centralize power and suppress opposition have led to growing discontent, but Erdogan's strategic moves in foreign policy and regional security have bolstered his political standing.