Schools and local councils across England are bracing for a significant increase in the number of children with special needs education, health, and care plans (EHCPs), with families seeking support ahead of planned government reforms. These EHCPs are legal documents that outline the specific support required for children and young people with disabilities or learning difficulties, ensuring access to additional funding or special school placements. In 2025, about 5% of school-age children had EHCPs, but the number has grown by more than 11% annually for the past two years. Local authorities predict similar increases over the next three years, which could exceed government forecasts and place pressure on school and council budgets. School leaders report that special educational needs (Send) coordinators have been working through the summer to handle the surge in requests for assessments, particularly as secondary schools see a notable rise in year 7 pupils arriving with EHCPs or applications. Some schools expect to double the number of students with EHCPs when the new school year begins. Bill Revans, a representative of the County Councils Network and a local council leader, noted a sharp increase in assessment requests since the government announced its reform plans in February. Previous estimates suggested the number of EHCPs would reach 840,000 by 2028-29, but current trends suggest this number may be surpassed. This increase is creating financial challenges for local authorities, even as the government aims to reduce existing Send-related deficits by 90%. Over 530,000 school-age children in England currently have EHCPs, while an additional 1.3 million have identified special needs, according to official data. These costs are covered by local authority high needs budgets, but the rapid rise in EHCPs has led to growing financial strain. Some councils have faced severe budget shortfalls, requiring a statutory override from the central government to prevent insolvency. Schools minister Georgia Gould said the government is reviewing responses to its white paper, which proposes earlier diagnosis and intervention to reduce the need for EHCPs. The plan aims to provide more support within mainstream schools, with EHCPs reserved for those with the most complex needs starting in 2030. Gould emphasized the government’s commitment to ensuring no child falls through the cracks and that support is readily available for families. However, Paul Whiteman of the National Association of Head Teachers noted that the anticipated reduction in EHCPs for children with less complex needs may have prompted families and schools to apply for support before the changes take effect. Meanwhile, charity Ipsea, which assists families with special needs, reported a significant increase in calls about EHCPs since the reforms were announced. Madeleine Cassidy, Ipsea’s chief executive, warned that the proposed changes risk weakening an already strained system by removing key protections for children and families. Local authorities are also adjusting their forecasts to reflect the surge in applications. Hampshire council reported record levels of EHCP applications this year and predicts a 58% increase in EHCPs between 2026 and 2030. Manchester council expects a 40% increase in school-age children with EHCPs by 2029. William Burns of the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy noted that the growing demand for EHCPs is creating financial pressures, even as the government’s models suggest demand could return to current levels by 2035. However, current levels of need are already overwhelming the system, making it unclear how a reformed framework can sustain such high demand.