French fertility rates vary widely

Eurostat recorded that in 2024, fourteen French territories had a fertility rate of at least 1.75 children per woman, while the European Union as a whole had a fertility rate of 1.34 children per woman, the lowest since the start of the series in 2001. This contrast highlights a national decline in France, where the average fertility rate is decreasing despite some regions maintaining relatively high fertility rates.

Eurostat’s territorial comparison

Eurostat compared 1,165 territories across the European Union, finding that 439, or 37.7 percent, were below the European average of 1.34 children per woman, while 714, or 61.3 percent, were above this level, with twelve territories exactly at this level. The synthetic fertility indicator measures the theoretical number of children a woman would have if the rates observed at each age during the year remained unchanged.

Fertility rates by country

Among the territories reaching at least 1.75 children per woman, Eurostat lists six in Germany, three in Slovenia, two in each of Hungary, the Netherlands, and Romania, and one in Ireland, Greece, Croatia, and Slovakia. At the other extreme, sixteen Spanish territories, seven Polish, and five Italian territories showed an index below one child per woman. These internal differences make national averages alone insufficient to describe European demographics.

France’s continued decline

In France, the decline continued in 2025, with the national conjunctural fertility indicator estimated at 1.56 children per woman in 2025, after 1.61 in 2024 in the revised series. The country recorded 645,000 births in 2025, a 2.1 percent decrease from 2024. The same report estimates the number of deaths in 2025 at 651,000, resulting in a negative natural balance of about 6,000 people for the first time since the end of World War II.

Policy implications

For local authorities, early childhood services, and family policies, local fertility differences constitute a diagnostic element. Their translation into needs for nurseries, schools, or family support also depends on the number of women of childbearing age, residential mobility, and the age structure of each territory. The European publication also recalls the extent of the fertility decline in the Union, noting that over twenty years, the indicator has remained between 1.34 and 1.57 children per woman, always below the conventional threshold of generational renewal of 2.10.

Future outlook uncertain

Future territorial comparisons will have to determine whether the French areas still relatively fertile in 2024 maintain this position as more recent data become available.