17 major health threats identified by 2026 report
An international commission, whose findings are published in The Lancet, has identified 17 major threats to human health by the year 2100. The report was released on October 11, 2026, as part of the World Health Summit in Berlin, and was compiled by 35 global experts who evaluated the main threats that could impact global health by the end of the century.Report emphasizes policy importance
The Lancet Commission on Global Health Threats of the 21st Century concluded that medical progress alone will not be enough to protect future generations unless educational, economic, environmental, and security policies are also improved. This highlights the interconnected nature of global health challenges.Study models health outcomes across 204 countries
Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), affiliated with the University of Washington, studied 204 countries and territories from 2025 to 2100. They modeled both best-case and worst-case scenarios for each of the 17 threats, based on the quality of public responses to these challenges.Threats could cost billions of healthy years
If no changes are made, each of the 17 identified threats could lead to the loss of more than a billion years of healthy life by 2100. The report uses the DALY (disability-adjusted life year) as a key indicator, which measures both years lost to premature death and years lived with a disease or disability.Threats range from pandemics to AI risks
The 17 threats include natural pandemics, antimicrobial resistance, air pollution, climate change, childhood malnutrition, obesity, hypertension, tobacco use, excessive alcohol consumption, poor mental health, unhealthy aging, conventional armed conflicts, income inequalities, low education levels, and the decline in international health aid. Two of these threats, nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence, could lead to human extinction.Sub-Saharan Africa faces major risks
Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable, especially concerning the decline in international health aid and delays in education. The Commission estimates that if international health aid were to collapse, sub-Saharan Africa would account for about 70% of the avoidable health losses worldwide.Improving education could prevent massive losses
Globally, improving education levels could prevent the loss of 16.1 billion years of healthy life by 2100. Women and children in sub-Saharan Africa are most affected by low education levels, as the education of mothers contributes to better child health and lower child mortality.Non-communicable diseases gain attention
The study highlights the growing importance of non-communicable diseases, such as obesity, which could preserve 23.1 billion years of healthy life through effective prevention. Other threats include hypertension and poor mental health, which also contribute significantly to health loss.Climate change and pandemic risks remain
Researchers estimate that limiting global warming to about 1.8°C rather than 4.4°C could prevent the loss of 1.89 billion years of healthy life, largely due to extreme heat and air pollution. The Commission also warns that a naturally occurring pandemic could surpass the impact of the Covid-19 crisis.Recommendations focus on preparedness and funding
The Commission recommends building health systems capable of anticipating crises and investing in innovation, such as vaccines, antibiotics, and obesity treatments. It also calls for independent monitoring of threats and sustainable funding, especially for African countries, which must integrate health policies with education, social protection, the environment, and security.
