Guinea's budget deficit grows in 2025

The Guinean budget deficit has widened in 2025, reaching 8.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), up from 4.9 percent in 2024. This increase is due to higher public spending and a shift toward domestic borrowing to fund the government's operations.

Public debt rises to 51.5% of GDP

Guinea's public debt reached 51.5 percent of GDP in 2025, compared to 43.5 percent in 2024. The rise is largely attributed to an increase in domestic debt, which grew from 25.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 32.2 percent in 2025.

Cost of financing the state increases

The cost of financing the government has also increased, with interest payments on debt rising from 1.2 percent of GDP in 2024 to 1.5 percent in 2025. Despite this, the government's total revenue increased to 18.2 percent of GDP, the highest level in over 20 years.

Spending outpaces revenue growth

Public spending has grown significantly, reaching 27.1 percent of GDP in 2025, compared to 20 percent in 2024. This increase is linked to public investments and expenditures related to elections, which have outpaced revenue growth despite improvements in tax collection and mineral revenue.

Simandou project may improve economic outlook

The development of the Simandou mining project, one of the world's largest iron ore deposits, is expected to boost Guinea's economic prospects. Increased iron ore exports could raise public revenues, and the World Bank anticipates the budget deficit will fall to 4.5 percent of GDP by 2028.

Debt sustainability under review

The World Bank previously deemed Guinea's debt sustainable in a 2024 analysis, but a new assessment is expected by the end of 2026. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to slightly decrease to 50.9 percent by 2028, assuming the Simandou project delivers expected benefits.