CO2 emissions plateau in India and China

Indian and Chinese carbon dioxide emissions have remained stable for two years, marking a first and offering a contrast to Europe's slowing climate efforts and the United States' return to increased emissions. However, future trends remain uncertain, and global reliance on Asia's actions is growing, as the region accounts for 54% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

War with Iran impacts global emissions

The war initiated by Donald Trump with Iran has had worldwide negative consequences, but it has also accelerated the energy transition. According to Carbon Brief, global CO2 emissions are expected to decrease by 0.5% in 2026 compared to 2025. Asia has increased coal-based electricity production to reduce reliance on oil and gas, despite a 1.2% rise in coal-related emissions.

Asia leads global emissions

The EDGAR 2026 report from the European Commission details that the thirty main economies in the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 53.9% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025, far exceeding the United States (11.1%) and the European Union (5.8%). Within Asia, China contributes 29.5% of global emissions, with India at 10%, together representing nearly three-quarters of the continent’s emissions.

China begins to reduce emissions

At the 2025 UN climate summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed his commitment to environmental protection, stating that "Clear waters and green mountains are as important as gold or silver." He pledged to reduce China’s greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10% by 2035, with a carbon neutrality target set for 2060. Chinese emissions may have already peaked in 2025, with only a 0.1% increase in 2025 after a 0.8% rise in 2024.

Contradictory trends in 2026

The war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decrease in Chinese oil demand in the first half of 2026 (-9%) and a significant drop in imports (-32%) in the second quarter. This contributed to the overall decline in global oil demand. At the same time, China relaunched coal production to ensure energy independence, despite a mine accident in May that temporarily slowed output.

China's 15th five-year plan

The 15th five-year plan (2026–2030) does not specify targets for emissions or coal production peaks, emphasizing coal's role in the economy and energy security. However, investments in renewable energy continue to rise, with 430 gigawatts of wind and solar power installed in 2025. The government is now focusing on grid integration, battery storage, and ultra-high voltage lines to optimize these investments.

India's emissions dip and challenges

India achieved a 0.2% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in 2025, driven by renewable energy investments and reduced oil and gas demand. However, this decline is unlikely to be repeated, as emissions rose by 3.7% in the first half of 2026 due to increased coal use and heavy industry growth. The government is investing heavily in coal-fired power plants and aims to expand energy storage capacity significantly.

ASEAN's emissions trajectory

ASEAN's greenhouse gas emissions are rising, with Indonesia and Vietnam showing the largest increases. The region is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, and investments in renewable energy have lagged behind those in fossil fuels. Despite recent improvements, fossil fuels still account for 81% of primary energy supply in ASEAN countries.

Energy consumption in ASEAN

ASEAN's energy consumption has grown at 4% annually for fifteen years, nearly matching economic growth. Electrification has accelerated electricity demand, with coal-fired power plants supplying most of the additional electricity. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted fuel supplies, and governments have increased fossil fuel subsidies, creating long-term sustainability concerns.

Energy transition in ASEAN

The energy transition in ASEAN is gaining momentum, with installed wind and solar capacity rising from nearly nothing in 2015 to 45 gigawatts in 2024. Vietnam leads in renewable investments, and electric vehicle sales are doubling yearly. However, long-term climate commitments by ASEAN countries conflict with projected emission increases, with emissions expected to rise 15 to 20% by 2035 compared to 2025.

Developed economies in Asia-Pacific

Among developed economies in the Asia-Pacific, Japan and Hong Kong have made progress in reducing emissions similar to the European Union. South Korea, Australia, and Taiwan have also seen a decline in emissions since 2015, influenced by the COP21 climate conference. However, Singapore has not seen a significant reduction in emissions, and the success of future climate commitments remains uncertain.

AI and energy demand in Asia

Asian countries are major producers of electronic components for artificial intelligence, driving energy demand, particularly in South Korea and Taiwan. Data centers, which consume a growing share of electricity, are expected to increase their demand from 2 to 2.5% of total electricity to 4–6% by 2030. While AI has potential to improve energy efficiency, the overall impact on emissions is expected to be negative by 2035.

Uncertain future for Asia's emissions

The future of Asia's emissions remains uncertain. While China and developed Asian economies may achieve reductions, India and ASEAN are likely to see increases. The role of AI in this context adds complexity, as its energy demands could challenge progress. Overall, the global fight against climate change will depend heavily on Asia's actions in the coming decade.