Retail activity outlook worsens

French merchants are approaching the end of the year with significantly deteriorated activity prospects. According to the Insee survey published on October 22, 2026, the intentions to increase selling prices are progressing while the forecasts for sales and orders remain weak.

Business climate drops in retail

The business climate in retail, excluding the automotive sector, fell to 93 points in October 2026, four points less than in September. This decline, the second consecutive one, appears in the Insee's latest monthly business climate survey. The indicator remains below its long-term average, set at 100.

Activity outlook deteriorates

In retail, excluding the automotive sector, the opinion balance on general activity outlooks falls to -42 points, compared to -30 in September. According to Insee, this level had not been observed since December 2018, outside of the health crisis. This indicator measures the difference between favorable and unfavorable responses from professionals surveyed: it reflects an assessment of the market, and not a variation in turnover.

Sales expectations decline

Past sales remain stable in this sector, but expectations are decreasing. The balance relating to expected sales declines from -9 to -10 points, while that of order intentions moves from -11 to -12 points. Retailers therefore do not describe a sharp decline in already realized sales; they mainly express growing concern for the coming months.

Price increase intentions grow

In the entire retail and automotive repair sectors, the opinion balance concerning expected selling prices moves from +10 points in September to +13 points in October, according to the detailed table of the survey. It remains significantly above its historical average, close to zero. The movement suggests that more companies are considering price increases than decreases, relative to the usual situation.

Price outlook contrasts with weak demand

This balance is not an inflation rate and does not quantify the increase of price tags in stores. It provides information on the direction of decisions under consideration by merchants. However, its increase at a time when activity prospects are darkening deserves the attention of consumers: retailers are facing a demand they consider fragile while anticipating more price increases.

National business climate improves slightly

The decline in retail contrasts with the slight improvement in the national indicator. In its October 22 summary, Insee places the business climate across all sectors at 97 points, one point higher than in September. Industry advances to 105 points and services reach 99, while construction declines to 95.

Retail and automotive repair sector holds steady

Retail and automotive repair are holding up better than retail stores: their indicator remains stable at 95 points. The balance of expected sales improves in this sector, although it remains below its long-term average. The contrast shows that the deterioration in the retail business climate is not uniform.

Survey timing and next update

The survey was conducted from September 25 to October 19, 2026, with the majority of responses collected during the first two weeks. The next business climate update, announced for November 20, will allow to measure whether the concerns of retailers translate into their order intentions and pricing policies as the year comes to an end.