President Donald Trump won 43% of the Hispanic vote in the 2024 election, a rise from 35% in 2020. As the 2026 midterms approach, many Hispanic Americans are expressing growing skepticism about the American Dream, with the current administration's strict immigration policies appearing to play a role. According to The New York Times, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has seen a spike in arrests of individuals without criminal records, and federal agents have shot at nearly two dozen people—mostly Latino—since last year. This includes the fatal shootings of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Texas and Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Maine.
A survey by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) in 2026 found that only 40% of Hispanic Americans believe the American Dream is still achievable, down from 52% in 2024. Diana Orcés, a research director at PRRI, analyzed nearly 700 responses and found that factors like national pride, concerns about democratic rights, and attachment to living in the U.S. are strongly linked to a belief that the American Dream is fading. Surprisingly, political party affiliation was not a major factor in these views.
The share of Hispanic Americans identifying as Republicans has more than doubled, from 10% in 2013 to 21% in 2025. However, support for Trump’s immigration policies has declined, from 31% in 2025 to 19% in 2026. Most Hispanic Americans—68%—believe the increase in ICE officers is making communities less safe. Only 42% of Hispanic Americans express extreme or very strong pride in being American, compared to 51% of all Americans. A majority—56%—now feel like strangers in their own country.
Concerns about the health of American democracy may also be influencing these views. When eligible voters fear being disenfranchised due to baseless claims about noncitizen voting, it can weaken their sense of belonging and trust in democratic institutions. Research shows that Latino citizens already face disproportionate challenges from strict voter ID laws, which may be partly due to lower rates of ID ownership and a sense of intimidation in an increasingly hostile immigration environment. The proposed SAVE America Act, which would require additional documentation to vote, could further hinder their ability to participate.
Orcés examined PRRI’s survey data while accounting for factors like race, age, gender, education, region, and language. Even after controlling for these variables, negative views of Trump’s immigration policies remained significant. Lower national pride, weaker attachment to the U.S., and concerns about democratic rights were strongly linked to the belief that the American Dream is no longer valid. One notable finding was that Hispanic respondents who took the survey in Spanish were more likely to believe the American Dream still holds true than those who took it in English. This may be because Spanish-speaking respondents often compare U.S. economic opportunities to those in their countries of origin. Party identification, however, was not a significant factor, suggesting that declining faith in the American Dream transcends political lines and points to deeper questions about belonging and identity.
Hispanic Americans' Declining Faith in the American Dream Amid Immigration Policies
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