A study examining the 224 deaths from the July 2021 floods in Germany and Belgium has revealed significant issues with flood hazard maps and how flood risks are communicated to the public. Researchers from institutions including the University of Potsdam, the Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, the University of Louvain, and Johns Hopkins University found that many victims died outside the flood zones marked on official hazard maps. The study, published in the journal Earth's Future, looked at where and how people died by reviewing official records, media reports, and interviews with family members.
The floods were caused by intense rainfall from a low-pressure system called "Bernd," which affected large areas in Germany and Belgium. In the German regions of North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate, as well as the Walloon Region in Belgium, more than half of the fatalities occurred in Ahrweiler county in Rhineland-Palatinate. The study found that about half of the locations in North Rhine-Westphalia and 75% in Rhineland-Palatinate where people died were outside the flood hazard zones designed for extreme flood scenarios.
Lead researcher Annegret Thieken from the University of Potsdam said current flood maps do not effectively convey the risks to the public. To improve accuracy, the researchers suggest using historical flood data and considering worst-case scenarios when creating hazard maps. The study also found that 14 people in North Rhine-Westphalia died while trying to minimize damage or start cleanup in flooded basements. This highlights a gap in public education about safe behavior during floods. In the three regions studied, 81 people died in their homes, many of whom were unprepared for the sudden floodwaters. The researchers emphasized that staying in flooded buildings is more dangerous and that these individuals should have been evacuated earlier.
The study also highlighted a lack of strategies to protect vulnerable populations. Nearly three-quarters of the victims were over the age of 60, and 12 of the deaths occurred in a residential home for adults with mental disabilities in Rhineland-Palatinate. Thieken stressed the need for better evacuation plans that specifically protect older adults, people with mobility issues, and those with health conditions. The researchers called for changes to the European Floods Directive, urging it to include worst-case scenarios in flood mapping, risk management, and communication. They recommended that warnings clearly distinguish between actions that reduce damage and those that save lives, and that messages specify when evacuation is still possible versus when it is too late, in which case people should move to higher ground within the building.
2021 European Floods Reveal Gaps in Hazard Mapping and Risk Communication
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Original sources:
- 🇺🇸Phys.org



