Trump's approval ratings fall sharply

Donald Trump's approval ratings have dropped significantly as the midterm elections approach on November 3, 2026. His approval has fallen from around 50% at the start of his second term to between 60 and 68% disapproval. This decline comes as he faces a critical test of his political influence.

Midterm elections shape Trump's political future

The upcoming midterm elections will determine the renewal of 435 House of Representatives seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governor positions. The outcome is vital for Trump's political future, as the Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority and 53 Senate seats. The Democrats are seeking to regain control of the House.

Economic policies lead to rising costs

Trump began his second term in 2025 with promises to reduce prices and avoid new wars. However, he soon imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which economists warned would raise prices. This led to a significant increase in gasoline prices, with regular gasoline reaching $4.28 per gallon and diesel at $6.32 per gallon.

Public dissatisfaction with cost of living

The rising cost of living has caused 81% of Americans to express dissatisfaction. Among Republican supporters, 62% believe Trump's decisions have harmed their purchasing power. This economic strain has contributed to a growing sense of discontent with his policies.

Conflict with Iran raises costs and criticism

The U.S. entered a conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026, after strikes coordinated with Israel. This war has driven up oil prices and household costs, contradicting Trump's pledge to avoid new wars. Over 70% of Americans disapprove of the management of Iran, blaming it for rising prices.

Immigration policies draw criticism

Trump's administration has faced criticism for its immigration policies, including tightened border controls, increased arrests, and restrictions on programs like the Temporary Protected Status (TPS). These policies have affected hundreds of thousands of individuals, including Haitians, Venezuelans, Cubans, and Nicaraguans.

Healthcare costs rise sharply

Healthcare costs have also risen sharply due to the expiration of enhanced tax credits under the Affordable Care Act. This led to an 114% increase in insurance premiums for subsidized insured, causing over 3 million people to abandon their coverage. Nearly 5 million could be uninsured by the end of 2026.

Public opinion turns against Trump

Public opinion has turned against Trump, with nearly 90% of Americans believing corruption is widespread in his government. Between 58% and 64% view him as a "potentially dangerous dictator." Despite this, he retains strong support among MAGA Republicans, with 93% approval.

MAGA movement faces internal challenges

The MAGA movement, originally founded on anti-system principles, is now seen by some as having strayed from its original ideals. Trump's focus on personal legacy projects has led to accusations of elitism. Corruption allegations, including those involving the U.S. ambassador to Greece, have further damaged his reputation.

Economic record faces scrutiny

While the stock market has risen 37% since Trump's re-election in 2024, the real economy faces challenges like a 3.7% inflation rate, rising prices at the pump, and a federal debt exceeding $40,000 billion. These factors have led to a perception that Trump's economic record resembles that of Joe Biden.

Democrats gain momentum but face challenges

The Democratic Party is capitalizing on public dissatisfaction, linking high living costs to Trump's administration and presenting itself as an alternative to the MAGA elite. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from August 2026 shows 37% of registered voters believe Democrats manage the economy better than Republicans. However, the Democrats struggle to build a coherent ideological alternative to the MAGA movement.

Predictive models favor Democrats in House

According to the predictive model of the Millénaire, Democrats have a 78.1% chance of reclaiming the House of Representatives but only a 39.8% chance for the Senate. Despite this, the Democrats remain unable to present a clear ideological alternative to the MAGA movement, which continues to pose a significant challenge in the upcoming elections.