AI-linked credit growth in 2026

According to an analysis by the European Central Bank (ECB) released on October 30, companies involved in artificial intelligence will contribute about 0.9 percentage points to the annual credit growth in the euro area during the first quarter of 2026. This would make up nearly a quarter of the total estimated credit growth of 3.4 percent for that period.

Rapid credit expansion for AI firms

Loans to AI-related companies in the euro area are growing faster than in other sectors, despite the total amount of such loans still being slightly below 200 billion euros. Since the start of 2025, AI developers and adopters have increased their debt by 1 to 1.5 percentage points more than companies not involved in AI, according to the ECB's estimates.

Bank financing due to market differences

The ECB points out that less developed stock and venture capital markets in Europe compared to the United States push more companies to seek bank or bond financing to fund their growth. However, different AI-related projects have varying financial needs. For example, building informational infrastructure and data centers requires high initial costs but offers collateralizable assets, unlike investments in software, data, or employee training, which are often funded through equity.

Growing demand for digital infrastructure loans

The ECB's October 2026 banking survey suggests that several banks expect a continued rise in the demand for loans to finance digital infrastructure, especially data centers. The planned financing is expected to focus more on infrastructure providers than on software publishers.

AI as a cost-reduction tool

Banks are increasingly promoting AI as a way to automate and reduce costs. However, the ECB reports that informational incidents and cybersecurity issues accounted for 10 to 12 percent of operational risk events recorded in 2025, nearly double their share in 2018. These statistics do not specifically measure incidents caused by AI, as it is difficult to isolate risks directly linked to it.

AI’s impact on capital spending

Companies surveyed in the ECB's telephone survey estimate that AI has added roughly 10 percent to their capital expenditure plans this year. This figure reflects the stated intentions of respondents and does not necessarily indicate a 10 percent increase in actual investment across all European companies. On a broader scale, the ECB estimates that digital investment will reach 3.3 percent of the euro area's gross domestic product in the first half of 2026, up from 2.3 percent in 2014.