A new study suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could recover if global warming is reversed, though the effects of its weakening would persist for centuries.
AMOC may recover if warming stops
A study published in Science Advances on October 14 suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current that affects Europe's climate, might be able to recover if global warming is reversed. Researchers from Denmark, Sweden, and the University of Stockholm found that while the AMOC weakens with rising temperatures, it may not reach an irreversible point, even under extreme warming scenarios.Model simulated AMOC under warming
The study used a sophisticated climate model to simulate the AMOC’s behavior under a warming rate of 0.2 °C per decade, slightly lower than the current rate of 0.36 °C per decade. The simulations included the effects of melting Greenland ice and rising air temperatures, and they found no irreversible threshold in the AMOC’s behavior.Weakened AMOC has long-term effects
Even if the AMOC could recover, the study warns that its weakening would have lasting consequences, such as disrupted global rainfall patterns and faster sea-level rise along coasts. Additionally, once Greenland’s ice has melted, it cannot be restored, even if global warming is reversed.Restoring AMOC would require massive carbon removal
According to the study’s lead author, Chuncheng Guo, restoring the AMOC would require removing up to 45 billion tons of CO2 annually—nearly the same as current global emissions. However, today’s carbon removal efforts are far below this, with only about 2 million tons of carbon removed each year.Geoengineering options are debated
The researchers mentioned geoengineering methods like solar radiation management as potential ways to cool the planet, though these are controversial and could lead to sudden temperature changes if stopped. Another idea, a dam in the Bering Strait to separate the Pacific and Arctic, was deemed impractical due to environmental and social risks.More research is needed
The findings align with a July study but are based on a single climate model. A German research team is now testing the results using ten different models to confirm the conclusions.
