Nigeria's Fuel Pricing Debate Intensifies

Since 2023, Nigeria has been trying to manage fuel prices without bringing back government subsidies. The issue has become a major topic in political discussions, especially with the 2027 presidential election approaching. President Bola Tinubu's administration and opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar are proposing different ways to lower the price of gasoline.

Atiku's Proposal Faces Challenges

Atiku Abubakar, running for president with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), suggests giving local refineries crude oil at a price lower than the market rate. His campaign team says the plan would be limited, included in the national budget, and subject to audits. However, details on how much the price would be reduced, the amount of oil involved, and the program's cost are still unclear.

Tinubu's Measures to Curb Price Hikes

President Bola Tinubu’s government has taken steps to limit rising fuel prices. On October 1, NNPC Retail, the distribution arm of the state-owned oil company, cut the price of gasoline by 66 nairas per liter. This reduction was initially meant to last a week but was extended until October 31. On October 8, Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele announced that NNPC Retail would also stop taking its profit margin on gasoline for 30 days.

Discounts Not Uniform Across All Customers

According to The Punch, some customers in Abuja paid 1,339 nairas per liter for gasoline, while others paid 1,405 nairas. The government is also negotiating a cap of 1,350 nairas per liter for the cost of gasoline at refineries or for imported fuel. Refiners and importers would temporarily absorb any costs above this limit and recover them later when market conditions improve.

Nigeria's Growing Local Refining Capacity

Local refining is becoming more significant in Nigeria's fuel supply. In August 2026, the country received an average of 50.5 million liters of gasoline daily, with 35.9 million liters from domestic production and 14.6 million from imports. The Dangote refinery alone supplied nearly 71% of the gasoline on the Nigerian market, while public refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna were not yet operational.

Fuel Prices Reflect Multiple Costs

The price of gasoline in Nigeria includes not only the cost of crude oil but also refining, transportation, and distribution expenses, as well as commercial margins. The dominance of Dangote in local production means the terms of fuel sales to distributors are also crucial. Since the end of subsidies in 2023, gasoline prices at service stations have become more sensitive to changes in global oil prices and the value of the naira. This has raised questions about how much support to refineries or distributors can actually lower prices for consumers.