AfD leads in two East German states

The far-right party "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) has become the leading political force in two former East German states, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, securing 43.8% and 38.2% of the vote respectively. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is only three seats away from an absolute majority with 39 out of 83 seats, while its support in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has more than doubled since 2021.

AfD's rise is not new

The rise of the AfD in these regions is not a sudden development. In 2024, the party was already leading in Thuringia with 32.8% and obtained 30.6% in Saxony, only 1.3 points behind the Christians-democrats of the CDU. However, the "barrier" against the AfD in these two Länder holds due to minority governments, but the sustainability of this barrier remains uncertain.

Factors behind AfD's success

The factors behind the AfD's success are multifaceted. While immigration is often cited, East Germany has experienced less immigration compared to West Germany since reunification. Nonetheless, xenophobic violence occurred in the 1990s and the emergence of the PEGIDA movement in Dresden in 2014 highlights the region's susceptibility to such sentiments. The pandemic exacerbated distrust towards the state, media, scientists, and elites, while the war in Ukraine led to receptiveness to pro-Putin narratives.

AfD's platform and East German grievances

The AfD has successfully aggregated various grievances, including opposition to immigration, decline, distrust in institutions, rejection of the federal government and Brussels, and opposition to sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine. However, the question remains: Why do many East Germans still feel unfulfilled in the reunified Germany thirty-five years after reunification?

East Germany's post-reunification struggles

East Germans experienced fifty-six years without democracy under two dictatorships, yet they demonstrated their capacity for freedom during the Peaceful Revolution of 1989. Despite the rapid institutional reunification with the Federal Republic, human reunification has proven more challenging. Economic, social, cultural, and human decline followed, with many East Germans feeling their skills and personal histories lost value. The exodus to the West has further exacerbated this, with the East losing about 2.5 million people since reunification, or 16%, with Saxony-Anhalt losing about a quarter of its population.

Different approaches to the Nazi past

The relationship with the Nazi past also differs between East and West Germany. In the West, a gradual confrontation with the past developed, while in the East, anti-fascism was established as a state doctrine, which did not prevent the emergence of skinheads and neo-Nazi groups in the last years of the East German regime.

Leaders challenging AfD's dominance

Despite these challenges, East Germans are not necessarily doomed to support the AfD, as evidenced by the political figures Manuela Schwesig in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Elif Eralp in Berlin. Schwesig, the SPD's Minister-President since 2017, led a personal campaign against the AfD, significantly impacting the CDU's performance. Eralp, a 45-year-old lawyer from a Turkish family, focused on concrete issues like housing, rents, transport, and real estate speculation, mobilizing young voters in Berlin.

Personalized campaigns shift political dynamics

Both Schwesig and Eralp personalized their campaigns, emphasizing local issues and autonomy from national party apparatuses. This suggests a shift in political dynamics where party loyalties are decreasing and individual personalities are becoming more influential.

AfD's impact on education and constitutional limits

The AfD's potential governance in Saxony-Anhalt could have significant implications for the educational system, as the party seeks to end inclusive education and create separate classes for disabled and refugee children. However, the Basic Law of 1949, which begins with the inviolability of human dignity, provides constitutional safeguards that limit the extent of such changes.

Need for addressing post-reunification fractures

These developments in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and Berlin highlight the need to address the fractures left by reunification and rebuild political engagement. The lessons from these elections are not only for Germany but also for Europe, emphasizing the importance of federalism, autonomy, and counterpowers in the face of rising nationalism and authoritarian tendencies.