Poll frequency in Australia

In Australia, about 140 opinion polls have been published since the 2025 federal elections, averaging about two per week. This high rate of polling has raised questions about its influence on political discussions and public perception.

Impact of frequent polling

According to a meta-analysis of 32 studies, the "horse race" media coverage of polls increases cynicism toward political leaders and the media. Researchers also note the potential for AI-generated "respondents" to distort polls at low cost in the future.

Current polling landscape

Opinion polls on voting intentions are published regularly in Australia. The latest survey by Newspoll, published in The Australian on August 9, 2026, shows the ruling Labor Party and One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, tied at 29 percent, while the Coalition drops to 18 percent.

Historical context of polling

Australia had only one major polling institute, Roy Morgan Research, until the 1970s. The number of polls increased significantly over time, reaching about 130 per year between 2010 and 2016, a period linked with political instability.

Global trend in polling

The increase in polling is not unique to Australia. In the United Kingdom, the number of opinion polls per week has more than tripled since the early 2000s, reaching about five per week after the 2024 general elections.

Effects of "horse race" journalism

Research on the effects of "horse race" coverage, which frames politics as a competition, suggests that it may increase public cynicism. A U.S. study found that only 10 percent of media coverage of the 2016 presidential election focused on substantive issues.

Public perception and media coverage

The "horse race" approach to reporting may distract the public from important political issues, leading to increased political alienation. However, some argue it promotes civic engagement by making politics more accessible.

Limitations in media coverage

Newsrooms have been understaffed, reducing the number of journalists with the expertise to critically analyze polling data. This has led to a focus on quick, click-driven reporting rather than in-depth analysis of policy issues.

Use of polls by political leaders

Political leaders often use polls to justify their actions or mobilize supporters. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull used polls to challenge his predecessor, while current leaders use them to rally their base or dismiss opponents.

Future risks of polling

Researchers have developed AI-generated "respondents" capable of mimicking human behavior in surveys. These synthetic voters can be programmed to produce desired results at a fraction of the cost, posing a potential risk to the integrity of polling.