Populism rising in France

A recent survey by Cevipof, part of the French Electoral Survey (ENEF), reveals that populism is gaining strength in French public opinion. Nearly 89% of respondents believe politicians talk too much and do too little, while 70% feel a growing gap between citizens and their representatives.

Public distrust of politicians

More than half of the respondents (53%) prefer to be represented by an ordinary citizen rather than a professional politician. Additionally, 40% believe that compromise in politics means renouncing one’s principles, and 83% insist that politicians in the National Assembly must follow the will of the people.

Populist trends over time

Populist attitudes in France are comparable to those seen in 2017, with a noticeable decline in 2022. However, the current social and political crisis may reignite populist sentiments. These attitudes are strongest at the extremes of the political spectrum, with a notable increase on the right since 2017, while remaining stable on the left.

Impact on voting behavior

Populist views significantly influence voting intentions, regardless of a person’s political orientation or background. Marine Le Pen gains about 13 percentage points for each unit increase on the populism scale, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon gains about 4 points and Éric Zemmour less than two. Populism, however, reduces the likelihood of voting for Raphaël Glucksmann or Édouard Philippe.

Marine Le Pen’s populist advantage

Marine Le Pen benefits most from populist sentiment among two key voter groups: those in the political center and right, and unaffiliated voters with no ideological preference. Among these groups, she receives around 23% of the votes in the first group and up to 42% in the second, highlighting the strong influence of populism on her support.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s limited boost

In contrast, Jean-Luc Mélenchon does not gain the same populist advantage. His support is concentrated among the most left-leaning voters, with the populist effect only slightly extending to a small group on the third level of the ideological axis. Among unaffiliated voters, his support remains well below average, regardless of their populist views.

Presidential race outlook

As the 2027 presidential election approaches, the survey suggests that Marine Le Pen may have a stronger position due to the current populist climate. However, the election will likely be influenced by a range of issues, including economic concerns, climate change, immigration, and international relations. At this stage, the National Rally candidate appears better positioned to harness widespread populist sentiment.