Almost 93,500 local elected officials, known as "grand electors," will vote on Sunday, September 27, to renew half of the Senate. These elections serve as a kind of dress rehearsal for the national legislative elections scheduled for April 2025. The results are closely watched by political actors, as the future president of France, whoever they may be, will need to work with the Senate, which aims to act as a counterbalance to the executive branch. Unlike major elections, which often generate significant public attention, this year's senatorial vote is expected to be more subdued, with results announced in a calm and reserved manner. The renewal of half the Senate is unlikely to bring dramatic changes, as the outcome is largely predictable and mirrors the balance of power seen in recent municipal elections.
A key question in this election is whether the National Rally (RN), led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, can form a parliamentary group. To do so, the party needs at least ten senators, a threshold that would grant it more speaking time and resources in parliamentary debates. The RN previously had only three senators, but recent municipal election results in medium-sized cities have given it a pool of potential candidates. The party is focusing on rural areas and mayors without clear political affiliations, where it believes it has the most support. Some of the RN's lists are led by well-known figures, such as deputy Edwige Diaz and Marie-Caroline Le Pen, to help attract attention and votes.
Another point of interest is whether La France insoumise (LFI), the party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, can gain representation in the Senate. However, the lack of an alliance with other left-wing forces and the fact that the Île-de-France region, where LFI has had strong results, is not undergoing a Senate renewal this year, puts the party at a disadvantage. LFI is expected to run independent lists, making it unlikely to form a formal group. Still, some LFI members, like Gabriel Amard, have a chance to be elected. A successful outcome would be symbolic, as Mélenchon first entered politics in the Senate in the 1980s as a socialist. However, LFI has criticized ecologists for aligning with socialists in the Rhône, which it claims has blocked its chances of securing a senator.
The Republicans (LR) and centrists are expected to maintain their majority in the Senate, despite some challenges. Gérard Larcher, the president of the Republicans in the Senate, is not under threat of losing his position, and the alliance between LR and centrists is likely to hold. However, the Republicans may lose a few seats due to strong performances by the RN in southern France. Meanwhile, the Macronist group, which lost its leader this summer, is trying to maintain its presence in the Senate. The group, known as the Rally of Democratic and Independent Progressives (RDPI), is counting on overseas senators to help it stay in place. On the other hand, the socialists may lose their position as the second-largest group in the Senate, potentially being overtaken by the centrist group if they fail to secure enough seats.
French Senatorial Elections Shape Political Landscape Ahead of Presidential Race
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