Best for Britain, a political strategy group, has released a new poll suggesting that a Labour manifesto commitment to rejoining the European Union is critical to preventing a potential electoral defeat in the next general election. The report, conducted by YouGov with over 13,400 UK adults, uses a tactical voting methodology to reflect election realities. According to the findings, including the promise of EU membership in Labour's next manifesto could secure 321 MPs, compared to only 90 if the pledge is excluded. The report warns that failing to commit to EU membership or settling for alternatives such as customs union or single market membership could lead to an existential crisis for the Labour Party, with near-total wipeouts in Scotland and Wales and fewer than 100 MPs overall.
The report assumes the leadership of Keir Starmer, who is described as "headmasterly" and "bitterly unpopular," leading to a scenario where Labour's likelihood to vote stood at just 18 per cent. The analysis indicates that while various options beyond Starmer’s redlines boost Labour's propensity to vote, only the promise of EU membership drives sufficient support to hold onto power. The report suggests that offering EU membership would increase Labour's support to 37 per cent, which could secure 321 MPs and potentially add another 93 seats.
The report also notes that ambitious EU policies, including membership, do not increase support for Reform UK and the Conservatives. It further suggests that an EU membership offering could increase the chances of unseating Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and her Brexit-backing shadow chancellor, Andrew Griffith. The economic benefits of such a commitment are highlighted, with the potential for a £92bn boost to the economy, particularly in areas affected by Brexit and the pandemic.
The report urges the Labour Party to consider the strategic importance of EU membership, emphasizing that the current leadership change presents a unique opportunity to secure a future government. The report concludes that complacency and hesitation could be detrimental, and that now is the time for a cautious and secure strategy to avoid electoral disaster.
Labour's EU Membership Strategy Seen as Key to Avoiding Electoral Defeat
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