Virgin aims for 2030 launch

Virgin Group's CEO, Josh Bayliss, has stated that the company's service through the Channel Tunnel is expected to launch by 2030, with one train per month starting that year. This would position Virgin as a competitor to Eurostar for cross-Channel travel.

Progress on infrastructure and trains

Virgin has made significant progress on its project, securing funding, access to the maintenance center at Temple Mills near London, and authorization to use the high-speed line HS1 connecting London to the tunnel. The company has also placed an order with Alstom for 12 high-speed Avelia Stream trains and 30 years of maintenance, valued at "650 to 700 million euros."

No formal agreement yet

However, no firm order has been signed yet, with only a strategic agreement in place between Virgin and Alstom. Alstom has stated that the project is advancing and that its teams are working to formalize an order, but it has not provided further details on commercial agreements.

Certification and authorization needed

Virgin must submit its application to Getlink, the tunnel operator, to obtain access authorization. This process will involve demonstrating operational integrity and meeting strict safety conditions. Getlink will make its decision in December, and the rolling stock must be certified for a speed of 300 km/h and to operate in the Channel Tunnel.

Certification timeline

Certification of the trains is expected to take between five and seven years, according to experts, which would push the earliest possible launch to 2031–2032. The current certification for the trains is only for 250 km/h, which is below the required speed.

Train specifications and delays

Virgin's trains will be assembled in Alstom's Savigliano plant in Italy and will include features such as larger windows and increased luggage capacity. They may also feature Elon Musk's Starlink connectivity service. However, Alstom is currently facing delays in meeting its contracts, including major delays on projects such as the TGV M.

Expert opinions on timeline

Transport and railway consultant Jean de Rougemont has stated that a 2030 launch "seems very unrealistic." Independent rail expert Frédéric de Kemmeter notes that delays on the TGV M do not necessarily indicate similar issues with the Avelia Stream version. He suggests that Alstom may face fewer obstacles with the Stream model and that Getlink may be inclined to accelerate the certification process to increase revenue.

Future service plans

Virgin Trains plans to operate 13 daily round trips between Paris and London from 2030, adding 4.75 million seats per year on this route. In the long term, the company also aims to connect Amsterdam and Brussels to the British capital, increasing the total number of rotations to 20 per day, or "7.5 million seats on the cross-Channel network each year."