President Donald Trump has been encouraging Republican-led states to redraw their congressional districts in an effort to gain more seats during the November midterm elections. However, recent analysis suggests that this strategy might not achieve its intended goals and could instead result in more Democratic victories. According to a forecast by Decision Desk Headquarters, Democrats have a 69% chance of winning the House of Representatives, compared to Republicans’ 31%. The analysis predicts that Democrats will win about 13 seats in states where district boundaries remain unchanged and could gain an additional two seats in the nine states that have undergone redistricting. Across a million simulated scenarios, Democrats are expected to achieve an average seat majority of 229-206, representing a 14-seat gain from the current Republican lead of 220-215. In Texas, which began the redistricting effort last summer at Trump’s urging, Republicans are projected to gain just under two seats—three seats less than their ideal. Some of the newly drawn districts include heavily Latino communities where Democratic representatives Henry Cuellar and Vincente Gonzalez are expected to retain their seats. Democrats have a one in three chance of holding the newly-drawn 35th district and a similar chance of defeating Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz in the 15th District. They also have a one in five chance of flipping the 23rd District, currently held by Brandon Herrera, who has faced scrutiny over past online content that included derogatory remarks about women. Trump claimed Republicans are “entitled” to gain five more House seats in Texas and criticized the current map as gerrymandered. He suggested that Republicans could also gain seats in California, where Democratic-led efforts have implemented a retaliatory gerrymander targeting five GOP-held districts. Meanwhile, in Florida and Ohio, Republicans might underperform despite redistricting efforts aimed at flipping Democratic-held seats. In Missouri, a new redistricting map backed by Trump was rejected by the state Supreme Court, requiring voter approval before it can be implemented. Until the legal issue is resolved, the state will use the same district lines as in previous elections.