The Dead Sea, known for its extremely high salt content, has warmed by approximately 3 °C across its entire water column since 1979. A study published on September 29, 2026, in Geophysical Research Letters suggests that if global air temperatures rise by 4 °C by 2100, the Dead Sea could warm by up to 8 °C. This warming rate would be twice as fast as the projected air warming, but only under a high emissions scenario. In a low emissions scenario, the lake is expected to warm by about 5 °C. The model accurately reproduces the observed 3 °C increase in temperature since 1979.
The Dead Sea's unique properties, due to its high salt concentration, affect its thermal behavior. The dissolved salt reduces evaporation, allowing the lake to retain heat more effectively than typical lakes. A model predicts that the Dead Sea's water level could drop by about 85 meters by 2100, which is roughly the height of a thirty-story building. This drop in level would further concentrate the brine, intensifying the warming effect. According to ScienceAlert, between 1979 and 2019, the lake's level dropped by about 34 meters, with deep waters warming by 2.8 °C and the upper layer by 1.7 °C. The drop in water level alone contributed nearly 1.5 °C to the warming of the depths, more than the 1.3 °C increase in air temperature during the 2010s.
The Dead Sea's warming is not only due to climate change but also to its own shrinking. In summer, the water and air temperatures can reach about 34 °C. Water warmer than the air can paradoxically sustain evaporation despite the high salt concentration. According to ScienceAlert, Emmanuel Guillerm, the lead author of the study, notes that this warming effect is partly due to the diversion of water and adds to the warming caused by human-induced climate change. The study's predictions for 2100 include an 85-meter drop in water level and a temperature increase of 5 to 8 °C, depending on global CO2 emissions.
The model's assumptions include no water inflow, stopped industrial extraction, and one mixing of the water column per year. The simulations also assume a future warming of the air while keeping humidity, wind, and sunshine on historical seasonal cycles. These conditions create a controlled scenario, not a real-world forecast. The full study was not accessible when this article was written, so the figures are based on summaries and press releases from the University of Lyon 1 and ScienceAlert. The study also highlights that the increasing concentration of brine can sustain warming even after air warming stops, making salt an independent driver of the process.
Dead Sea Warming and Level Drop Projected by 2100 Under Climate Change Scenarios
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