Across the northern hemisphere, cold weather events are gradually becoming less intense and less frequent as global temperatures rise. According to a recent study, the intensity of cold spells has decreased by 0.3°C per decade, while the number of cold days has dropped by about 20 per decade. This trend is evident in regions like the UK and Europe, where a notable cold event known as the "Beast from the East" occurred in early 2018, bringing severe snow and wind. However, such extreme cold events are now less common and less severe than they were in the past.
Cold spells, defined as prolonged periods of unusually low temperatures between November and March, have been studied since 1980. The research indicates that these events are not only becoming less frequent but also more localized, rather than affecting large regions. In Europe, for example, the frequency of cold spells has decreased by nearly one day each year. These cold spells are typically caused by large-scale weather patterns, such as the polar jet stream—a fast-moving band of wind in the upper atmosphere that usually acts as a barrier, keeping cold air trapped in polar regions. When this jet stream becomes wavier or "meanders," it can allow cold air to spill southward, leading to sudden drops in temperature.
Despite early theories that climate change might lead to more frequent and severe cold spells—due to the Arctic warming faster than other regions—the study found the opposite. As the overall global temperature rises, cold spells are becoming milder, with their intensity decreasing by 0.3°C per decade across the northern hemisphere. In Europe, cold spells are warming at a rate of 0.6 to 0.9°C per decade, a pattern also observed in North America and East Asia. Additionally, the duration and geographical spread of cold spells are shrinking, with the persistence of cold weather decreasing by about 0.1 days per year in northern North America and southern Europe.
The study also considered a hypothetical scenario where long-term temperature increases caused by climate change were removed. In this case, cold spells showed no significant change, suggesting that the observed reduction in cold events is largely due to the overall warming trend. However, in northern North America, even without this warming, cold spells were still found to be less severe. Researchers believe this is linked to the loss of sea ice, which affects temperature variability. As sea ice diminishes, cold extremes may warm more quickly than hot extremes, contributing to the decline in the severity of cold spells. As a result, the kind of harsh, snowy winters that were once common in many parts of the northern hemisphere are now becoming increasingly rare.
Northern Hemisphere Cold Spells Becoming Less Frequent and Intense
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