European potato harvests hit record lows

Last year, European farmers faced an oversupply of potatoes, leading to some being discarded, while this year's harvest is forecast to be the weakest ever recorded in Europe. According to the magazine Le Grand Continent, risk factors are present, with forecasts from the professional information service World Potato Markets indicating a significant decline in potato production. This decline is attributed to two concurrent factors: the drought and heatwave of the summer and autumn, which severely affected yields in several countries, and a reduction in cultivated areas due to overproduction in the previous year.

Yields fall sharply in key countries

The drought and heatwave impacted yields in France by -13% compared to the average of the previous five years, Belgium by -21%, the United Kingdom by -11%, and Germany by -10%. Additionally, cultivated areas have decreased in the four main potato-producing countries in northwest Europe—Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands—by 17% in Belgium, 15% in the Netherlands, 11% in Germany, and 10% in France.

French potato production expected to drop significantly

French potato production is expected to decline in 2026 with an estimated harvest of 6.5 million tons, according to the latest forecasts from the Ministry of Agriculture. This would represent a drop of nearly 22% compared to the previous year, when it reached its highest level in 30 years. French potato production had previously shown consistent growth, almost doubling between 1995 and 2025. However, after a series of very good harvests, producers faced an overproduction crisis in 2025, which caused a sharp drop in prices. Some farmers were forced to destroy or give away their potatoes, leading to a reduction in the area dedicated to potatoes in the fields in 2026. According to estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture, 166,000 hectares were cultivated this year, representing a decrease of more than 13% from one season to the next.

Belgium’s frozen fry industry faces challenges

In Belgium, which is the world's leading exporter of frozen fries, the consequences could be particularly significant. In addition to the meager harvest due to the drought, there is also a harvest of potatoes too small to be processed into fries. According to producers, by the end of summer, only half of the harvest met the required size. The decrease in available volumes for the processing industry is likely to lead to an increase in the price of frozen fries. This price increase could be felt beyond Belgium, as the industry is oriented towards exports at about 90%.