Seasonal forecasts for November 2026 through January 2027 suggest that France will experience a mild autumn followed by a wet winter. According to La Chaine Météo, the pattern of consistently warm weather is likely to continue through December, but predictions for January are less certain. Temperatures are expected to be significantly higher than average, especially in November, with a gradual decline in the following months. Atlantic weather systems, known as depressions, are likely to bring both mild temperatures and increased humidity, leading to above-average rainfall, particularly in December. The ongoing El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, may influence weather patterns in the North Atlantic. However, its impact on Europe is indirect, and it cannot fully explain the winter’s progression. While El Niño can affect global weather systems, its influence on specific regions like France remains complex and not fully predictable. For November 2026, temperatures are forecast to be 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above the average, with a high level of confidence in this prediction. Rainfall is expected to be about 15% above normal, with frequent rainy periods. December 2026 is still predicted to be mild, with temperatures 1.5 degrees Celsius above average, although there may be occasional cooler spells. Rainfall is expected to increase further, possibly making December the wettest month of the three. January 2027 brings more uncertainty, with temperatures expected to be about 1 degree Celsius above average, but with lower confidence in the forecast. There is also a possibility of colder periods during this month. Rainfall is projected to be 15% above average, mainly in the southern regions, while the northern areas may see less clear weather patterns. These forecasts do not rule out the possibility of brief cold snaps or snowfall. The long-term forecasts are based on analysis from the METEO CONSULT model, which tracks atmospheric anomalies. However, many other seasonal forecasting models exist, and they may offer different predictions. This bulletin is regularly updated on the 10th and 25th of each month to reflect the latest data.