French football clubs Olympique de Marseille (OM), Olympique Lyonnais (OL), and Rennes are evaluating how many points they need to collect in the group stage of the UEFA Europa League to advance to the knockout rounds. According to the analysis by Football Meets Data (FMD), the top eight teams in the group stage will qualify directly for the quarterfinals, while teams ranked from 9th to 24th will enter a playoff round. Teams that finish outside the top 24 will be eliminated from the competition. To qualify directly for the quarterfinals, FMD estimates that 15 points after eight matches may be sufficient, based on previous seasons. Last season, AS Roma secured direct qualification with 16 points. For teams aiming to reach the top 24, FMD suggests that 10 points may be enough in most cases, although teams with a negative goal difference of -4 or worse may struggle. In the 2024-25 season, 10 points and a goal difference of -2 were required for top 24 qualification, while the 2025-26 season required 9 points and a goal difference of -2. According to FMD projections, Rennes has the highest chance of qualifying directly for the quarterfinals, with a 42.8% probability of finishing in the top 8 and a 91% chance of finishing in the top 24. Marseille has a 35.9% chance of finishing in the top 8 and an 87.5% chance of finishing in the top 24, while Lyon has a 30.6% chance of finishing in the top 8 and an 83.9% chance of finishing in the top 24. Despite Rennes’ higher probability of direct qualification, OM has the highest chance of winning the Europa League, with a 6.3% probability, followed by OL with 4.8% and Rennes with 3.7%. FMD attributes this to the experience of OM and OL in European competitions and the generally more manageable opponents they face in the group stage. However, once the knockout rounds begin, the projections give more value to the chances of OM and OL.