Six million students have returned to French schools this year, marking the start of the school year for preschool and elementary students. However, the number of students has been declining steadily over the past decade. In the first grade, the number of students has dropped by more than 10% since 2016, from 6.77 million to 6.02 million in 2026. Projections from the Ministry of National Education suggest this trend will continue, with nearly a million fewer students expected by 2035. Economist Julien Grenet from the Institute of Public Policies analyzed two scenarios in a recent study. The first involves maintaining the current average class size (21 students in the first grade in 2026) and reducing teacher positions to save costs. The second scenario suggests reducing class size to an average of 18 students while keeping the current number of teachers. Grenet estimates that by 2034, following demographic trends, 53,000 teacher positions could be eliminated, saving about 3.4 billion euros. However, he cautions that educational spending has long-term benefits, and cutting costs could have negative consequences. According to Grenet, smaller class sizes can lead to better academic performance and improved long-term job prospects. The Institute of Public Policies estimates that reducing class size to 18 students, while keeping the number of teachers the same, could yield about 4.5 billion euros in societal benefits by 2034. Mustafa Ozcelik, vice-president of the FCPE, a parents' organization, sees the demographic decline as a chance to improve education quality. Aurélie Gagnier, a spokesperson for the FSU-SNUipp, a major teachers' union, agrees, stating that reducing class size to around 19 students—close to the European average—is necessary. However, Gagnier warns that class size reductions vary significantly by region, leading to growing inequalities. In Paris, class sizes outside priority education areas have decreased by 13% over the past decade, while in Seine-Saint-Denis, the decrease has been only 5%. These disparities are expected to worsen in the coming years, with regions in the north and east of France facing the most significant drops in student numbers. A study by the Institute of Public Policies highlights that neighboring departments like the Aisne and the Ardennes, with similar social profiles, could have different class sizes—15 students in the Ardennes versus 17 in the Aisne—potentially creating uneven educational conditions. The decline in student numbers also raises concerns about the closure of classes and schools, particularly in rural areas. Over the past 40 years, the number of public schools in France has decreased from 60,059 in 1985 to 42,443 in 2025. Mustafa Ozcelik notes that sometimes classes are closed for just two or three students, leading to reduced public services in affected areas. Julien Grenet emphasizes the need for careful planning in teacher recruitment to maintain equity across regions. He suggests freezing teacher recruitment in areas with high student numbers, such as Paris, while increasing it in others. However, Aurélie Gagnier points out that some academies struggle to fill available teaching positions, even when quotas are set. In response to these challenges, Education Minister Edouard Geffray has announced an experiment in 18 departments, including the Aisne, Martinique, and Finistère, to adjust school maps based on student numbers and transportation needs. Grenet warns that the scale of the demographic decline is immense and calls for more action from public authorities. As the decline affects middle schools, he cautions that the impact will extend across the entire education system, including higher education, over the coming decades.