On March 2, President Emmanuel Macron announced a shift in France’s nuclear policy during a speech at the Île-Longue naval base. He stated that he had ordered an increase in the number of nuclear warheads in the French arsenal, moving away from the concept of "strict sufficiency" to "strict coherence." This change aims to ensure that France's nuclear deterrent remains capable of assured destruction in a world marked by rising tensions and the spread of nuclear technology. Macron also introduced the idea of "advanced deterrence," which would allow European allies to participate in exercises and strategic signaling operations involving French nuclear forces, sharing the burden of maintaining deterrence.
Despite these policy changes, the number of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SNLE) in service is not expected to increase in the near future. The Strategic Oceanic Force (FOST) confirmed that it has no intention of exceeding the four SNLE currently in operation. The FOST explained that the system is already optimized for four submarines, and performance improvements in the second generation of SNLE have allowed for reduced numbers without compromising operational capabilities. The focus is on modernizing the existing submarines and preparing for the eventual introduction of the third-generation "Invincible" class.
The FOST emphasized that the high availability of its four SNLE is due to effective maintenance and suitable infrastructure. However, the current setup, with three docks for four submarines, requires careful management of maintenance operations. FOST officials have expressed a desire for a fourth dock to increase flexibility and avoid having one submarine tied up at the dock at any given time.
Regarding the Strategic Air Forces (FAS), which are part of the Air and Space Force (AAE), there are no plans to expand beyond the two Rafale squadrons based at the 4th Fighter Wing in Saint-Dizier. While the restoration of the nuclear mission at the Luxeuil air base with the Rafale F5 and the hypersonic ASN4G missile might suggest otherwise, the FAS also conduct conventional missions, which make up half of their operations. The FAS will need to "orchestrate" the advanced deterrence strategy, potentially involving the relocation of the 1/4 Gascogne and 2/4 La Fayette squadrons to Luxeuil by 2035. This move does not necessarily mean the end of the nuclear mission at Air Base 113 in Saint-Dizier, which has successfully hosted nuclear squadrons.
The 1996 decision by President Jacques Chirac to dismantle the land-based component of France's nuclear deterrent, which involved surface-to-surface missiles on the Albion plateau, remains unchanged. However, the 2024-30 Military Programming Law (LPM) includes provisions for the development of a long-range conventional ballistic missile. The rapporteurs noted that there is no immediate need to reconsider the decision to eliminate the land-based component, based on current discussions with military officials. Nonetheless, they left the door open for future reconsideration if a strategic surprise, such as the emergence of new technology capable of detecting SNLE, were to occur. In such a case, restoring a land-based ballistic missile component could be a viable option, though it would involve significant costs, including the development of wheeled carriers, launchers, nuclear warheads, and specialized units for command, communication, intelligence, and protection.
France Announces Nuclear Policy Adjustments Amid Strategic Review
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