October 7 remains a central issue

The massacre of October 7, 2023, commemorated at the beginning of the month, has become a central issue in the upcoming Israeli legislative elections. The two main political blocs, pro and anti-Netanyahu, remain neck and neck in the polls, with neither side approaching these elections with calm.

Trauma of October 7 lingers

Three years after the Hamas attack on October 7, the trauma continues to haunt Israelis, and as the first legislative elections since the massacre and the beginning of the war in Gaza approach, this day remains at the center of voters' concerns and could play a decisive role in their political choices.

Polls highlight October 7's influence

According to the Israeli Democracy Institute (IDI), an independent research and polling organization, 68% of Jewish Israelis—representing about 80% of the electorate—believe that the events of October 7 will occupy a central place in their decision when choosing their party. Security issues, responsibility, and whether the lessons learned from the attack have actually been taken into account will weigh heavily in the decision of many voters when making their choice, estimates Yonathan Plesner, director of the IDI.

Rise of Gadi Eizenkot

The rising popularity of Gadi Eizenkot (Yashar party, center-right), Netanyahu's main rival, is likely the first political consequence of October 7 for these elections. In the polls conducted over the past few months, Gadi Eizenkot appears to be the preferred personality among Israelis to occupy the position of Prime Minister, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu. A survey conducted in mid-September confirms this trend: 48% of Israelis state they prefer Eizenkot for the position of Prime Minister, compared to 40% for Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israeli parliamentary system

However, in the Israeli political system, based on a parliamentary regime, voters do not directly vote for a candidate, but for parties, which must then form coalitions to govern. The Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats. To obtain a majority, a coalition must gather at least 61 deputies. After the elections, the leader of the party that comes first with its allies is tasked by the Israeli president to form a government, with a Prime Minister at its head. For this election, therefore, the popularity of Gadi Eizenkot does not constitute a guarantee of victory.

Netanyahu's continued influence

The parties play a major role in the election. However, the polls are tight and cast doubt on the next ruling coalition. Once again, as has been the case for about ten years at each election, the personality of Benjamin Netanyahu occupies a central place in the campaign. A divisive figure in Israel, the outgoing Prime Minister is still weakened by his corruption cases, his judicial reform project, his handling of the events of October 7, and the issue of the hostages kidnapped in Gaza.

Political alliances and blocs

Around his party, the Likud (right), are gathered the ultra-orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, as well as the far-right parties, Jewish Power and Religious Zionist Party. This group, which has been leading the country since December 2022, forms a relatively coherent block ideologically, ranging from the right to the far right. Facing the outgoing coalition, the opposition parties form a heterogeneous block, with the common denominator of wanting to turn the page on Netanyahu. The opposition is led by Gadi Eizenkot and his party Yashar, but it also includes other parties: B'Yachad, with the far-right figure Naftali Bennett and the centrist Yair Lapid, as well as the secular far-right party Israel Beitenou led by Avigdor Lieberman. The Democratic Party of Yair Golan, a center-left party, completes this ideologically incoherent group.

Arab political representation

On the margins, there is also the joint list, led by Yousef Jabareen, which brings together three of the four main Israeli parties led by Arabs: Hadash, Ta'al and Balad. The Central Electoral Commission had previously banned these parties from participating in the September elections, on the grounds that they denied the existence of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, before this decision was overturned by the Supreme Court on October 2. Finally, there is the Ra'am party of Mansour Abbas, the only Arab-led party to have held seats in the government during the Bennett-Lapid coalition from 2021 to 2022.

Palestinian issue absent

The Palestinian question is erased from the electoral campaign: the future of millions of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, who suffer from colonization and military occupation, does not create a debate in Israeli society. However, October 27 is nevertheless set to be a historic moment for Israel's future. The themes that divide the different blocs—security, future of the judiciary, role of religion, and the balance of October 7—could profoundly redraw the political orientation of the country.

Tense campaign and AI-generated content

A sign of the major stakes at play, the race for victory, for this tight election, materializes in an extremely tense campaign, flooded with videos generated by artificial intelligence to denigrate opponents. After Benny Gantz, who had crystallized the hopes of the opposition aiming to remove Benjamin Netanyahu from power, Gadi Eizenkot, also from the military world, wants to play the role of the Deus ex machina who unites Israelis to manage a post-Netanyahu Israel.

Gadi Eizenkot's background

Gadi Eizenkot entered politics in August 2022, joining the National Unity Party led by Benny Gantz, whom he succeeded as head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from 2015 to 2019. Three years later, in September 2025, Eizenkot founded the Yashar party, under which he is now running for election. Born in Tiberias to Moroccan immigrant parents, Gadi Eizenkot enlisted in the Golani Brigade at 18 and had a 41-year military career. On December 7, 2023, two months after the massacres of October 7, and while the Israeli army is engaged in a destructive war for the Gaza Strip and its civilian population, his fifth child, Gal—a 25-year-old soldier belonging to the elite Maglan commando unit—was killed in combat in the north of the Palestinian enclave. At the time, Eizenkot was serving as a "ministerial observer" within the restricted war cabinet, composed of five members, responsible for making the most important security decisions for Israel.

Eizenkot's political plans

If he is elected Prime Minister after the October 27 elections, he will become the first Israeli government leader of Mizrahi origin (Jew from the Middle East or North Africa). The base electorate of the Likud, Netanyahu's ruling party, is notoriously composed more of Mizrahim than Ashkenazim (Jews from Europe). Gadi Eizenkot has recently realized that he must actively play the demographic card to attract voters.

Eizenkot's policies on security and governance

In an Israel where the security issue is omnipresent, what is the plan of this former military figure, marked by grief, who now carries the hopes of the opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu? In the West Bank, in a long interview with the Times of Israel, he committed to fighting against the violence of settlers, which has exploded since the Netanyahu government came to power in December 2022, and to stop the colonization in areas A and B, but not in area C. He does not mention the creation of a Palestinian state, opposes the creation of a Palestinian army, and refuses the reoccupation of the West Bank by Jordan. He therefore advocates for Israeli control of this occupied territory.

Eizenkot's stance on Gaza and judiciary

Regarding Gaza, he has committed to defending the American peace plan for the enclave, while also defending the prior disarmament of the Palestinian organization Hamas. On the Israeli judicial reform, he has committed to stopping the measures taken by the Netanyahu government to undermine the independence of the judiciary. This reform had created major divisions in Israeli society during mass demonstrations against the reform before October 7. Regarding the problems encountered in the haredi education system, he has promised a law aimed at strictly applying the public education law. Any institution that does not integrate into the public education system within four years will no longer receive public funding. Gadi Eizenkot has also made universal conscription a central element of his political commitment, challenging the exemption from military service for ultra-orthodox Jews.

Eizenkot's regional and military policies

Regarding his relations with the rest of the region, he advocates a firm stance towards Tehran to combat the Iranian nuclear program, as well as the departure of foreign Russian and Turkish forces from Syria, and he aspires to extend the Abraham Accords to Lebanon. During this campaign, Benjamin Netanyahu has tried to mobilize his supporters around the security issue, particularly his inflexible stance towards Hamas and Hezbollah, his ability to have led the United States into war in Iran despite his failures, his colonial advances in the West Bank, and the defense of the Jewish character of Israel. A strategy that seems to be paying off among part of the Israelis.

Netanyahu's defense and legal response

The revelations by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, according to which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been warned of the imminent Hamas attack by the United Arab Emirates and Egypt shortly before October 7, do not seem to have significantly eroded support for Netanyahu, who has filed a defamation lawsuit against Haaretz, denying the revelations. Although these information have been confirmed by other media, such as the New York Times, they do not seem to have affected the popularity of the Likud leader. Despite the security issue of October 7, the repeated wars, the absence of an independent investigation into October 7, as well as a significant decline in purchasing power in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu still has a chance to see his party record a reasonable score in its elections.

Netanyahu's political legacy

Prime Minister since 2009 almost continuously, he is seen by his supporters, the Likudniks, as the unassailable "King Bibi," inseparable from his party and the future of Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu has succeeded in polarizing Israeli society, accusing all criticism of being linked to the left, friendly to Palestinians, and traitorous to the Israeli nation. Approximately 20% of Palestinian citizens of Israel make up the country. A significant electoral pool. The Arab parties could win between 7 and 12 seats in the next election, and play a role in the formation of the future government. Even though Gadi Eizenkot has stated that he will not ally with an Arab party, a political gesture immensely taboo in Israel, especially after October 7, post-election political negotiations could change the outcome.

Amsha Israel's potential influence

Another political party could also play the role of kingmaker after this election: the far-right party of Ofer Winter, Amsha Israel. In some polls, Amsha Israel crosses the minimum threshold of 3.25%, required to enter the Israeli Parliament, and obtains between 4 and 5 seats. The Israeli parliamentary system allows small parties, even with very low scores, to significantly influence national politics. Ofer Winter has affirmed his support for Benjamin Netanyahu. The latest polls conducted by Israeli media show that Yashar and the Likud could each receive between 21 and 23 seats in the Knesset. The results vary according to the polls, but generally, no coalition would be able to form a government at this time. The hypothesis of an inability to form a government, opening the way to a new political crisis marked by a succession of electoral votes, as was the case after 2018, cannot be ruled out.