U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently addressed traders who may be trying to weaken the Japanese yen, a currency that has been losing value rapidly. Speaking at a university in Texas, Bessent used colorful language, saying, "I have information you don't have. Now, the bank, it's me. You can bet against me if you want," a phrase that echoed the language of a casino. He emphasized that he understands the Bank of Japan and Japanese policymakers well and is aware of their potential actions in the foreign exchange market.
On July 31, Bessent and the U.S. Treasury worked with Japan to stop the yen’s decline, an unusual move not seen since 1998. In this coordinated effort, the U.S. sold euros to buy yen, helping to stabilize the currency, which had fallen to a 40-year low. Since then, the yen has gained value against the dollar, partly because investors expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, which typically strengthens a currency.
Bessent explained that the intervention was meant to prevent economic instability in Asia, recalling the 1990s Asian financial crisis, which was partly caused by a weak yen. He stressed the importance of a stable yen for both the U.S. and the region, pointing out the "excessive volatility" in the South Korean won. Given Japan’s large economy and its role in the global savings market, a stable yen is crucial for global financial stability.
Some analysts believe Bessent’s actions may not be purely for the benefit of the global economy. Japan holds a significant amount of U.S. debt, with $111.7 billion in Treasury bonds as of June 2023. If Japan were to support the yen further by buying it, it might need to sell some of its U.S. debt holdings, which could raise borrowing costs for the U.S., which is already facing high interest rates.
Bessent’s intervention could also align with the Trump administration’s goals of reviving American industry. A weak yen makes Japanese exports cheaper and can pressure other Asian currencies, complicating efforts to strengthen the Chinese yuan. While a weak currency helps exporters, it also raises the cost of imports. However, the long-term success of these efforts is uncertain, as the yen remains weak due to Japan’s long history of near-zero interest rates, a policy introduced after the country’s economic bubble burst in the 1990s.
The Bank of Japan has begun raising interest rates in 2024 to control inflation and support the yen, but this could slow Japan’s already weak economic growth and add to its massive public debt, which is 249% of the country’s GDP. The government of Sanae Takaichi has been cautious about raising rates but may proceed with the third rate increase of the year on September 18, influenced by market pressures and Bessent’s recent intervention.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Challenges Traders Over Japanese Yen Intervention
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