Cereal prices in France and global markets have shown mixed trends between October 2 and October 5, 2026, influenced by export challenges in Ukraine and Russia, as well as anticipation of the USDA's WASDE report due on October 9. Wheat and corn prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT) and Euronext saw gains, although corn prices in the United States remain constrained by high availability. Tensions in the Black Sea, including Russia's attack on a Turkish corn cargo off the coast of Romania, have increased market uncertainty. On the CBOT, wheat prices rose across various contracts, with the December 2026 contract reaching 692.25 cts/bu and the March 2027 contract hitting 706.25 cts/bu. Corn prices on the CBOT showed limited movement, with the December 2026 contract falling slightly to 497.25 cts/bu and the March 2027 contract remaining stable at 511.5 cts/bu. On Euronext, wheat prices rose, with the December 2026 contract reaching 245.75 €/t and the March 2027 contract at 247.50 €/t. Corn prices on Euronext increased, with the November 2026 contract reaching 274.75 €/t and the March 2027 contract at 269.25 €/t. Ukrainian cereal exports have significantly slowed, with total exports since July 2026 amounting to about 2.9 Mt, down 43% year-on-year. However, September exports increased by 50% compared to August, driven largely by wheat. Corn exports remained stable, while barley exports rose by 16.9%. For the first five days of October, Ukraine exported only 140,000 t of cereals, potentially leading to a significant carryover stock. The Ukrainian minister of agriculture warned that the area of winter wheat intended for the 2027 harvest could decrease by 17% due to export difficulties, though 30% of the planned areas have already been sown. In Russia, export difficulties are affecting the domestic market, with only 177,800 t of cereals passing through Novorossiysk in September, compared to 2.4 Mt a year ago. Russia plans to purchase up to 3 Mt of cereals at fixed prices in 2026-2027, but this is limited compared to the estimated export deficit of 14 to 20 Mt. The restrictions on exports via the Azov-Black Sea basin are keeping large quantities of cereals on the domestic market, increasing pressure on prices paid to producers. The USDA's WASDE report, scheduled for October 9, will provide new estimates on American and global cereal supply and demand. This report is expected to influence market operators, particularly regarding American corn production and end-of-campaign stocks. The report will also address global wheat balances and other secondary cereals. In France, wheat prices on Euronext crossed above 245 €/t, with various contracts showing gains. Corn prices in France also rose, with prices around 279.50 €/t in Bordeaux and 319.50 €/t in Pontivy/Guingamp. The euro weakened against the dollar, trading at 1.1204 on October 5, which affects the competitiveness of American exports. However, wheat export inspections in the United States were higher than expected, at 302,356 t for October 2. Weather conditions are expected to favor the development of seeded wheat and accelerate corn harvesting in the United States. According to the USDA's Crop Progress report, 23% of the American corn harvest was completed by October 4, compared to 18% the previous week and 15% on average over five years. Additionally, 83% of the corn had reached maturity, compared to 72% the previous week and 70% on average over five years. Drier weather is expected to favor corn drying and accelerate the harvest. Saudi Arabia purchased 683,000 t of flour wheat at 339.24 $/t C&F, well beyond the initially sought 535,000 t, with deliveries scheduled for November and December. This purchase provides additional support to wheat prices on the global market. The persistent tensions in the Black Sea also maintain a risk premium on the markets.