French grain prices rise sharply

Wheat, barley, and corn prices in France increased between October 12 and 13, 2026, according to reports from multiple sources. This rise is partly due to a downward revision of the French corn harvest by Agreste, which lowered its estimate to 7.3 million metric tons for the 2026-2027 season.

Black Sea logistics disrupt exports

Logistical challenges in the Black Sea, caused by strikes on ships and ports in the region, have disrupted wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine. The Ikar firm revised its forecast of Russian wheat exports from 1.5 million metric tons to 42 million metric tons, indicating a significant shift in expectations.

Russian wheat export decline

The Russian Grain Union reported a decrease in Russian wheat exports by 4.7 million metric tons compared to the previous year. Only 12 importing countries are listed this year, down from 21 the previous year. Elena Tyurine of the Russian Grain Union noted that Egypt remains the top wheat importer but has significantly reduced its purchases, while Algeria has increased its presence this year.

Ukrainian wheat exports lag

In Ukraine, wheat exports are estimated at 11 million metric tons by Ukragroconsult and 10.5 million metric tons by APK-Inform, both below last year's figures. Ukrainian customs data for early October show delays in wheat and barley exports. Offers for milling wheat are rare, but sellers are less reluctant in feed wheat.

Algeria boosts wheat imports

Algeria has purchased 600,000 metric tons of soft wheat, though further details are not available. The French Ministry of Agriculture published its latest estimate of the corn harvest in the Hexagon, expecting 7.3 million metric tons in 2026-2027, a significant drop compared to 13.9 million metric tons last year.

US wheat prices decline

In the United States, wheat prices on main markets declined following technical sales, with favorable weather conditions allowing for the advancement of wheat sowing. The USDA reported that wheat sowing was at 51 percent of the area planned, compared to 58 percent according to the five-year average.

Australian wheat exports remain strong

In Australia, Lachstock Consulting reports dynamic wheat exports, notably to China, which is more present than in barley. Rabobank estimates a wheat harvest of 31 million metric tons in the country, down 13.3 percent compared to last year.

China adjusts corn consumption

China has adjusted its corn consumption forecast downward by 9.1 million metric tons for 2026-2027, with imports expected at 6 million metric tons and stocks significantly increased.

Global food prices rise

The global food price index reached 136 points in September, the level recorded in November 2022, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. This is the third consecutive month of increase, with cereals leading the way with a 5.1 percent increase in one month and 17.2 percent over one year.

Factors behind the price increase

The causes of the price increase include Russian and Ukrainian strikes on Black Sea ports and ships, dry weather affecting agricultural prospects in North America, and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz increasing the cost of fuel, fertilizers, and freight.

Wheat's role in different regions

In Europe, wheat represents a small share of the price of a baguette, with soft wheat accounting for about 7 percent of the price in 2025. In contrast, in the Maghreb and the Middle East, wheat forms the daily ration and weighs more heavily in household budgets.

Egypt's wheat dilemma

Egypt illustrates the dilemma of countries reliant on Russian and Ukrainian wheat, with imports falling by nearly three quarters compared to the previous year. Public purchasing agencies are staying away from the market, while an abundant national harvest offers a reprieve.

Hope for a Black Sea corridor

Markets hope for the opening of a cereal corridor in the Black Sea, with some traders estimating that a peace agreement would reduce wheat prices by about fifty dollars per ton. The global increase in wheat prices has not affected the French consumer significantly, but has had a more pronounced effect in countries where food security is more vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.