Seven ships attacked in October

Seven ships were attacked off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria in October. On October 15, the Wine Trader, a chemical tanker flying the flag of San Marino, was struck by drones while at anchor off the Romanian coast in the Black Sea. Eight crew members are still missing, and the ship, which was heading to the Romanian port of Sulina, near the border with Ukraine, according to MarineTraffic data, caught fire. This is the seventh ship attacked off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria since the beginning of the month.

Attacks in Romanian waters

According to the Financial Times, the Wine Trader and the Yara J, another chemical tanker flying the flag of Comoros, were in Romanian territorial waters when they were attacked. This would represent a clear escalation compared to previous strikes and a violation of Romania's sovereignty, a NATO member country. Russia is suspected of all the ship attacks recorded since October 1 and has been accused by Kyiv in several of them. Romanian President Nicușor Dan stated in Brussels: "It is evident that these are attempts by Russia in Romania and Bulgaria aimed at destabilizing our societies and weakening support for Ukraine."

Difficult to prove Russian involvement

In most cases, Russian responsibility is difficult to prove: the following day, it admitted it could not "technically say, for now, that it is Russians." Europe has experienced a clear increase in hybrid Russian attacks since September. The review is able to note 23 incidents involving drones and other aircraft in the airspace of European countries or near their borders, 7 drone attacks against merchant ships in the Black Sea, 6 sabotage operations (including 2 suspected and 4 unattributed), 3 fires, and one presumed interference. Moldova, Romania, and Poland, three countries bordering Ukraine, account for 24 of these 40 actions, and Bulgaria has 5.

Part of Russia's broader strategy

The attacks on commercial ships off the coasts of Bulgaria and Romania are part of the war that Russia has been conducting since 2022 against Ukrainian port infrastructure and grain exports. These ships had relatively been spared outside Ukrainian waters since the establishment by Ukraine in the summer of 2023 of a corridor along the coasts of NATO countries, but they are now being targeted on an unprecedented scale. Russia's freedom of action in the Black Sea is now limited to about 25% of the maritime combat space, essentially a 25-kilometer-wide strip along its Caucasian coast, compared to nearly 90% in February 2022. Although Russian naval capabilities are significantly reduced, Moscow can still strike port infrastructure and ships with missiles and drones launched from the mainland.