The UK is expected to experience wetter and warmer-than-average weather this autumn, according to the Met Office. This forecast is being driven by the strengthening of a climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which involves the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Scientists predict this El Niño could be the strongest in living memory, potentially leading to stormier conditions later in the season. While increased rainfall may help areas of the UK affected by drought, it could also raise the risk of flooding. Warmer-than-usual temperatures are also expected due to an already warming climate and unusually high sea temperatures around the UK. A stormy autumn is forecast, with wet and windy conditions more likely than normal, especially from November. Ian Lisk, Met Office Chief Meteorologist, noted that the seasonal forecasts align with historical patterns linked to El Niño events. Although the phenomenon is expected to peak in November or December, it is not the sole factor influencing the UK’s weather. Lisk emphasized that while this El Niño may be one of the strongest on record, it does not guarantee more severe weather impacts for the UK. The wetter conditions in late autumn and early winter could bring some relief to areas experiencing drought, although the Environment Agency has not yet seen a change in the current drought status. Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the Environment Agency, explained that drought recovery is a long process, requiring reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater to return to normal levels. While the additional rainfall will be beneficial, there is a possibility of "weather whiplash," where the climate shifts rapidly from one extreme to another. This was seen in 2025, when the UK experienced extreme heat in summer followed by severe storms and flooding in autumn. Autumn is also expected to be warmer than average, continuing a trend following a summer that was provisionally declared the hottest on record. The UK experienced five widespread heatwaves in 2026, with 40 days recording temperatures above 30C (86F). This warming trend is consistent with global climate change, and the unusually high sea surface temperatures around the UK will also play a role. Marine heatwaves have caused sea temperatures to rise up to 5C above normal, contributing to higher land temperatures. While snowfall is unlikely this autumn, it is still too early to determine if winter will be particularly cold or snowy. El Niño can increase the chances of cold and snowy weather in late winter across north-west Europe. However, the UK’s location on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean may complicate this, as other weather patterns can prevent the colder northerly or easterly winds from reaching the country. Looking back at previous winters after strong El Niño events since 1900, only one—winter 1982/83—saw widespread disruptive snowfall.