Rising public approval for the current government has sparked speculation that Andy Burnham, the new prime minister, might consider holding an early general election. This comes as Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, continues to see its popularity decline. Since Burnham took over as leader in July, Labour has maintained a lead over Reform, marking the first time since March 2025 that Labour has held this position. At the same time, the Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, has also seen a drop in support over recent months. The government has officially stated that it has no plans to call an early election. However, sources within Labour have suggested that the upcoming by-election in Holborn and St Pancras—where Sir Keir Starmer, the former prime minister, is leaving parliament—could serve as a test for whether an early election is feasible. Starmer resigned as prime minister and Labour leader earlier this month to make way for Burnham. Polanski has confirmed he will run as the Green candidate in the by-election, which will be a key indicator of Labour's strength. Opposition parties are also preparing for the possibility of an early election. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey has already formed a working group to draft a manifesto, noting that such preparations are typically done later in the political cycle. Meanwhile, Reform UK has suggested that Burnham might be persuaded to call an election if Labour's candidate wins convincingly in Holborn and St Pancras, potentially showing that left-leaning voters are united behind Labour again. Polling data indicates that Labour is likely to win the by-election, but the political landscape has shifted since 2024. The Greens made significant gains in local elections, capturing several London councils, including seats in Camden, which includes the Holborn and St Pancras area. While Labour retained control of the region, the shift in support has raised questions about Burnham's ability to secure a mandate for his policies. Although an early election could give Burnham a stronger political position, experts like John Curtice have expressed caution, noting that Reform UK could still perform well in a general election and that calling one now could risk losing political momentum.