Cheese and butter prices may rise slightly in the future due to a dramatic drop in milk production caused by an extreme summer heatwave in the UK. According to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), dairy farmers lost over £83 million worth of milk during the summer months. This was due to a significant decline in milk output, with British farmers supplying 240 million fewer litres of milk than expected during the hottest summer on record in 2026. The ECIU analyzed data from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) and found that milk deliveries were four days below the expected level between May and August. Over 87 days during this period, deliveries were below the benchmark when compared to the same dates from 2008 to 2025. The impact was most severe in July and August, with every day in those months seeing lower-than-expected milk production. The UK experienced five intense heatwaves and long dry periods in 2026, leading to droughts and restrictions on water use. These conditions severely affected grazing and harvests, while also causing heat stress in livestock. Despite the summer's poor performance, the ECIU noted that overall milk production for 2026 could still be near record levels, partly due to a surplus built up earlier in the year. Additionally, the consolidation of dairy farms has allowed for greater efficiency and increased milk production, even as the number of cows has reached a record low. While the drop in milk deliveries is unlikely to cause immediate supply or price changes, there could be a small impact on products like cheese and butter. The ECIU warns that climate-related issues like this can significantly affect dairy production, further straining farmers' already tight incomes. Tom Cantillon, a senior analyst at the ECIU, said that future climate shocks will be harder to recover from as the dairy herd continues to shrink. Milk is difficult to store, so any production loss cannot be made up later in the year. Farmers in England and Wales have faced mounting pressure from the extreme heat and drought, while Scottish producers are trying to compensate for the shortfall. Cantillon noted that the impact of this summer was worse than any seen in 18 years, with the lost £83 million adding to the financial strain on farmers who were already operating at a loss. Farmers are also preparing for higher feed costs as they move to winter feed earlier than usual. Cantillon emphasized the need for climate resilience measures such as more shade and water sources, but warned that summers will continue to worsen unless emissions are reduced to net zero.