Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's former finance minister, Mark Carney, has revealed he considered the possibility of a U.S. invasion following former President Donald Trump's repeated comments about making Canada the "51st state." Carney, who previously led the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, mentioned during an interview with The New York Times that it is a leader's responsibility to consider extreme, low-probability risks. He did not specify what precautions were taken, but emphasized the need for careful risk management.
Tensions between the U.S. and Canada have risen sharply since Trump returned to the White House in 2024. Trump has publicly expressed a desire to integrate Canada into the U.S., calling it the "51st state" and even addressing then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as "Governor" on his social media platform, Truth Social. In May 2025, Trump said it was "highly unlikely" he would use military force to annex Canada, but just two months later, Carney visited the White House and told Trump Canada is "not for sale." Trump responded with a familiar slogan, "Never say never."
In January 2025, The Globe & Mail reported that the Canadian military began modeling a response to a hypothetical U.S. invasion for the first time in over a century. Relations have also been strained by Trump's aggressive trade policies, including steep tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and other goods. This summer, Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion in Canadian exports, including wine, hockey sticks, and cement. Carney described the move as an act of war and retaliated with similar tariffs on U.S. goods.
Public opinion in Canada has shifted, with many now viewing the U.S. as a hostile power. While Trump has criticized Canada for being unfair in trade, a recent Politico survey found that only a quarter of Americans agree with his approach. Carney has since worked to reduce Canada’s dependence on the U.S., especially in critical technology sectors. He noted that some experiences, once witnessed, are impossible to ignore, referring to the trade war. Carney also suggested that these changes will make Canada a stronger and more reliable partner for the U.S. in the long run.
In a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, Carney hinted at a broader shift in global politics, urging middle powers like Canada to reduce their reliance on superpowers and adjust their strategic approach. The Independent has reached out to the White House for a response to these developments.
Canadian Prime Minister Discusses Preparations for Potential U.S. Invasion Amid Trade Tensions
AI-rewritten from original reportingHow it works
canadatrumptrade-waru-scarneygeopolitics



