Eight months before the French presidential election, European officials in Brussels are closely watching the proposals of the main candidates, with particular interest in issues such as the European budget, the primacy of EU law, France's national debt, and support for Ukraine. The potential victory of either the far-right National Rally (RN) or the far-left Ligue du Peuple (LFI) candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has raised concerns about France becoming a destabilizing force within the European Union. Euro MPs Daniel Freund (Germany, the Greens), Charles Goerens (Luxembourg, Renew Europe), and Andras Laszlo (Hungary, Patriots for Europe) have expressed their worries about these developments.
The French presidential election is only eight months away, but it is already causing unease in Brussels. "There is no panic, but a certain concern," says German euro MP Daniel Freund. He highlights that the far right, currently leading in the polls, could push the country toward a scenario where both the far right and the far left make it to the second round of the election, leaving the center and progressive parties out of the race. This scenario is particularly worrying for European officials, as it could shift the balance of power in the EU.
Charles Goerens (Renew) from Luxembourg warns of an "important risk at the institutional policy level." He questions the stance of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen on the primacy of European law over national law. Le Pen's political program includes asserting the superiority of French law over European law, a position she previously supported during the 2022 presidential campaign. Goerens fears that if France were to adopt this stance, it could weaken the foundations of European unity.
Jordan Bardella, the head of the National Rally, has pledged to halve France's contribution to the European budget if the party comes to power. Daniel Freund argues that this is "legally impossible" and warns that a country that stops paying would be considered as unilaterally exiting the European Union, which could "kill the French economy." Andras Laszlo, an ally of Bardella, calls for a change in European policies before discussing the amount of money needed to revive the European economy. He does not support the idea of reducing national contributions unilaterally, citing Hungary's experience under Viktor Orban as a cautionary example.
The European Commission and the Council are pushing for the rapid adoption of the next multiannual EU budget (2028-2034), preferably before the end of the year. Jordan Bardella has protested this, arguing that the idea is to lock in the budget before a potential change in France's political majority, calling it "deeply undemocratic." Meanwhile, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the LFI candidate, has announced his intention to cancel the part of France's debt held by the European Central Bank (ECB), a move that has caused concern among European officials. Charles Goerens points out that such a decision would require unanimous agreement from all member states, which is unlikely, especially with Germany opposed. Daniel Freund predicts that if Mélenchon becomes president, he will face strong opposition from other EU countries.
Regarding support for Ukraine, statements from National Rally leaders, including Louis Aliot, suggesting that France should cut aid to Ukraine for financial reasons, have raised alarms. Hungarian Andras Laszlo supports this idea, arguing that the war in Ukraine is straining the European economy and calling for an end to the conflict to ease the financial burden. Luxembourgish Charles Goerens warns that such a decision would have a "disastrous impact" on the EU. Despite these concerns, Daniel Freund believes European solidarity remains strong, especially now that Viktor Orban is no longer in the European Council. He acknowledges that losing France in the alliance would change things, but notes that Germany, Italy, the Baltic countries, Poland, and others continue to support Ukraine. Goerens concludes that all French presidential candidates should recognize that Europe is part of the solution to the continent's challenges.
European Concerns Over Upcoming French Presidential Election
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