A new study published in the journal Scientific Data on September 16 reveals that the ice caps of Greenland and Antarctica have lost about 12.5 billion tons of ice per year since 1979. This loss has contributed to a rise in global sea levels, with every additional centimeter of sea-level rise putting approximately 3 million more people at risk of annual flooding. The research, conducted by an international team of scientists and the European Space Agency (ESA), used satellite data from NASA dating back to the 1970s to track the long-term changes in these ice caps.
Since 1979, the two ice caps have collectively lost an estimated 11,309 billion tons of ice—enough to cover the entire continental United States in a 1.5-meter layer of ice. This loss has caused the global average sea level to rise by about 3.1 centimeters. The researchers combined 42 different satellite estimates to track the changes in the ice caps over time. They found that about 84 percent of the ice loss is due to the movement of ice, such as glaciers flowing into the ocean, while the remaining 16 percent is due to changes in surface conditions, like melting and snowfall.
Ines Otosaka, lead author of the study and a glaciology expert at Northumbria University in England, said that the ice caps are losing mass at an increasing rate, especially when considering the ice that flows into the ocean. This trend is strongly linked to climate change. However, between 2020 and 2023, the rate of mass loss temporarily slowed, largely due to increased snowfall in East Antarctica, which slightly offset the overall loss. Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at the University of California, Irvine and co-author of the study, said this slowdown was just a short-term fluctuation and not a sign of a long-term trend.
The study also found that the ice loss has lagged nearly a decade behind rising global temperatures. This means that even if global warming were to be limited, the current acceleration in ice loss could continue for decades. While the research provides valuable insights into the future of the ice caps, there are still gaps in understanding the precise rates of change and mass balance of the ice. This information is crucial for predicting sea-level rise and its impacts on coastal communities worldwide.
Ice Loss from Greenland and Antarctica Accelerates, Contributing to Sea Level Rise
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