Gulf oil exports are resuming, but they are primarily going to Asia instead of Europe. Saudi Arabia has more than doubled its oil shipments in September, reaching 5.4 million barrels per day, up from 2.4 million in August. However, these exports are leaving through Ras Tanura and heading to Asia. A pipeline connecting the kingdom to the Red Sea was damaged on September 10 and 11, and has only resumed operation since the 23rd at reduced capacity. Aramco, the state-owned oil company, has also informed at least two European refineries that no shipments will arrive in October.
The 450 million euros of targeted aid announced by the French government will not lower the displayed price at the pump. On September 25, the price of diesel was displayed at 2.399 euros, a level not seen since March 2022, when it peaked at 2.1407 euros. In one out of ten stations, at least one type of fuel was missing. The European disadvantage in fuel pricing is expected to continue as long as Gulf oil takes the route to Asia, which will affect transportation costs, including buses and winter flights.
The Norwegian oil from the Johan Sverdrup field has cost up to 35 dollars more than the reference Brent crude, a gap that was only 60 cents on September 8. The blockage mainly affects already refined fuel: the Gulf no longer exports a quarter of the diesel it sold before the war. Each barrel of refined fuel produced in Europe brings more than 85 dollars to the refineries, an unprecedented figure.
Exchange rates show the euro closed on Friday at 1.1391 dollar, down 0.81 % for the week, marking its third consecutive decline. A floor is forming between 1.1323 and 1.1353: if this level gives way, the euro could fall toward 1.09, though this is not expected. The short-term range for the euro is from 1.13 to 1.15.
Japan and the United States had bought yen together in August to support the Japanese currency, and Tokyo reminded on September 24 that this measure remained active. A yen buyer faces two risks: the market, and a political decision capable of making the currency jump. On Friday evening, it took 179.17 yen for an euro.
Morocco offers rare visibility with the value of the dirham set on a basket composed of 60 % euro and 40 % dollar, within a fluctuation margin of 5 %. The dirham has been gradually declining for four weeks, dropping 0.3 % between September 17 and 23, to about 10.945 dirhams for an euro. The services paid in dollars, including North American hotel and cruise bookings, therefore cost a little more than in August, without a break.
The Canadian dollar did not benefit from the crisis, as an euro was still worth 1.6111 Canadian dollar on Friday. Its central bank did not change its rate, which remains at 2.25 %, and Alberta sends its crude by pipeline to the neighboring American market at a discounted price.
The announcements to follow include the American price PCE index for August on Wednesday, which economists see rising by 0.4 % in a month. Germany delivers its first estimate for September on the same day, to be compared to 2.9 % in August. On Friday, two figures fall in the same session: the first estimate of inflation in September in the euro zone, expected between 3.5 % and 3.7 % after 3.2 %, and American employment. The European Central Bank has no meeting before the end of October.
Gulf Oil Exports Redirected to Asia Amid Pipeline Disruptions and European Supply Concerns
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