On 16 September, drones attacked a major Saudi oil pipeline that crosses the country from east to west, disrupting shipments from the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. According to Bloomberg, at least two European refiners learned that Aramco would not deliver crude oil to them in October. The Polish group Orlen already sources from the North Sea. According to one report, Europe, supplied via the Red Sea, will be the first affected.
In the United States, Donald Trump signed a law allowing up to 100 percent taxation on products from the five largest customers of Russian oil and gas. Nothing is currently implemented, and European countries that have distanced themselves from Russian gas are spared. China is the number one target. The novelty lies in the form: the threat, previously just the president's words, is now voted by Congress and reviewed every six months. India, another major customer of Russian oil, is closely following this text.
India's currency is going through a difficult year: it takes nearly 96 rupees for one dollar, a decrease of about 9 percent in one year, and the Indian central bank intervenes almost every day to support it. Facing the euro, the rupee remains stable, around 110 for one euro. A trip to Rajasthan or Kerala therefore does not cost more than in spring.
In Europe, prices have increased by 3.2 percent over one year in August, with energy alone accounting for 1.29 points. The European Central Bank raised its rate to 2.50 percent on 10 September, and the Fed, its American counterpart, increased its rate between 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent on 16. These increases calm consumption but do not make oil more abundant. They mainly affect the exchange rate: better remunerated, the dollar attracts investor money. Therefore, the winter is being prepared with two rising costs, fuel and the dollar.
Exchange rate: this summer, forecasters expected the euro to be between 1.22 and 1.25 by the end of the year. They now aim for 1.15 to 1.20. A purchase budget calculated on 1.20 must therefore be revised: hotels in New York, Caribbean cruises or services paid in dollars cost more than expected. In the reverse direction, American visitors find Europe a little cheaper.
The yen, on the other hand, has lost part of the ground gained. The Japanese central bank did increase its rate to 1.25 percent on 18 September, but almost everyone expected it. Two out of nine members voted against it, and its governor Kazuo Ueda made no promises for the months ahead: investors have taken their gains. It now takes 180.94 yen for one euro, compared to 178.56 seven days earlier. Japan remains more expensive than at the end of August, with the euro still 2.3 percent below its level on the 31st. We see the euro fluctuating between 179 and 183 yen, a slight reprieve for Japanese service purchases.
Elsewhere, almost nothing has changed. The pound (0.8588), the Swiss franc (0.9462) and the Canadian dollar (1.6056) ended the week practically at the same level against the euro. The euro fell 1.14 percent in one week, moving from 1.1592 to 1.1460. The Fed indicated that it sees its rates around 4.1 percent by the end of 2026, which makes the dollar more attractive.
Drones Attack Saudi Oil Pipeline, U.S. Imposes New Tax Measures on Russian Oil Customers
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