Flight movement forecast revised downward

Eurocontrol has adjusted its forecast for flight movements in 2026, predicting a decrease of 110,000 flights due to the ongoing conflict in Iran. The original estimate was for a 2.7 percent increase, but it has now been revised to a 1.7 percent increase.

Expected stabilization by 2027

Eurocontrol anticipates that disruptions will gradually stabilize, and pressure on energy prices will decrease by the end of the first quarter of 2027. The organization does not expect the conflict to affect flight movements between 2028 and 2032.

Rising aviation costs

The conflict has increased aviation costs, particularly for kerosene, which now accounts for 31 percent of airline operating costs. This is up from 25 percent in 2025. Despite these challenges, the average aircraft load factor reached 84.5 percent over the first eight months of 2026, a slight increase from previous years.

Varied impact on airlines

The impact of the conflict varies among airlines. KLM group experienced a 1 percent decline in daily flights, while Wizz Air saw a 20 percent increase in activity, ranking fifth. Ryanair, despite reducing operations in Belgium, maintained a 5 percent increase in daily flights and remains the most active airline in Europe.

Low-cost carriers lead growth

Low-cost carriers have continued to expand, operating an average of 11,511 daily flights over the first nine months of 2026, a 4 percent increase compared to 2025. Traditional carriers saw a 2 percent increase, while regional airlines faced a 5 percent decline in daily flights.

Future growth and capacity constraints

Eurocontrol forecasts a 3.2 percent increase in flight traffic in 2027, with growth rates gradually decreasing to 1.8 percent by 2032. However, airport capacity constraints may prevent the completion of 165,000 flights by 2032, despite 12.82 million flights being planned.