Tensions rise between the US and Iran

Recent statements by US President Donald Trump suggest that military tensions between Washington and Tehran may be resuming. Trump claimed that the US has destroyed a significant portion of Iran's nuclear capabilities but still needs to address one or two sites, while Iran has warned of retaliation if new strikes occur.

Conflict history and recent developments

The current conflict began on February 28 with joint strikes by the US and Israel against Iran, which responded by targeting Gulf allies of the US. A ceasefire in April ended nearly 40 days of intense bombings, and an agreement in June aimed to end the conflict definitively. However, this fragile understanding collapsed this summer, with the Strait of Hormuz at the center of the dispute.

Targeted site and possible military action

On Saturday, Trump mentioned the need to "deal with" Mount Kolang, also known as "Pickaxe Mountain," located about 200 km south of Tehran near the Natanz nuclear complex. He suggested that the US could address one or two remaining sites quickly, possibly leading to a short and intense military campaign after the upcoming American midterm elections.

Israeli and US diplomatic positions

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the current situation as a "unique historical opportunity" to "definitively eliminate the existential threat" of Iran. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Trump had not made any decisions and preferred a "diplomatic solution," despite ongoing discussions.

Iran's threats and military preparations

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's supreme guide, warned of an "immediate, powerful, and unlimited geographical retaliation" if new strikes occur. He ordered military officials to update target lists to include "all types of material and immaterial assets" belonging to the US and Israel. Iran has also threatened to target data centers, AI systems, and underwater cables in the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomatic efforts and Iranian stance

Negotiations are underway with Qatari mediation, but Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said he does not see the need for direct meetings with the US. He stated that if the US accepts Iran's conditions, Tehran will decide whether negotiations should be direct or indirect.

Public sentiment in Iran

In Tehran, the possible resumption of a large-scale war is a topic of concern. Some citizens, like 62-year-old Farima, feel they are living in a state of anticipation for war. Others, like Ebrahim, a forty-something seller, express no fear, citing that it has been 48 years since Iran last experienced war, referencing the Islamic Republic's founding in 1979.

Incident in the Strait of Hormuz

On Saturday, a tanker caught fire after hitting mines, according to the Iranian army, as reported by state television. The US, however, claimed to have largely demined the area, adding to the uncertainty and tension in the region.