Ukrainian drone attacks have struck all but five of Russia’s 32 major oil refineries, according to a report by the International Energy Association (IEA). These attacks have cost Russia an estimated $20 billion in damages and have significantly impacted the country's oil refining capacity. On Sunday, as polling closed in Russia’s parliamentary elections, Ukraine launched a major drone strike on Moscow, which the city's mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, described as the most massive attack seen so far, with over 450 drones shot down. The attacks occurred shortly after US President Donald Trump had urged both sides to cease attacks on energy infrastructure. Despite this, both countries have continued their attacks. According to the IEA, the strategy of targeting Russian oil refineries has intensified over the past 18 months, leading to a significant decline in oil throughput, with levels falling to their lowest in more than 20 years and a 30 per cent drop compared to the previous year. Gasoline output has decreased by 20 per cent compared to 2024, while diesel production has fallen by nearly 30 per cent. The attacks have led to long queues at fuel stations, with some reports indicating waits of up to 40 hours, and rising oil and gas prices. Fuel shortages have been reported in 92 per cent of Russia’s regions, with around two-thirds implementing fuel rationing measures. The Russian government has been forced to restrict oil exports to protect domestic supplies. According to a report by Ukraine’s General Staff, Russia's total oil refining capacity is down by 45 per cent. The IEA noted that Ukraine is increasingly using multiple waves of drones against individual refineries, aiming to overwhelm protective measures. Ukraine’s long-range capabilities and targeting have advanced significantly, particularly during the first half of 2026, enabling the July 7 strike on Gazprom Neft’s Omsk refinery, Russia’s largest, located roughly 2,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The IEA stated that there has not been significant damage reported to primary and secondary crude oil processing units across Russia. However, Ukraine is increasingly targeting specific refinery units to maximize the impact of each strike. These units include crude distillation units (CDUs), where the crude is initially processed, and secondary units such as fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs), hydrocrackers, reformers, and hydrotreaters. Damage to CDUs can typically be repaired within a week or two, while damage to more complex secondary units can take six to eight months to fix on average. Russia has been forced to deal with the crisis by rationing fuel and allowing the production of lower quality energy, including higher-sulphur grades of gasoline for the first time since 2016. In May, the Washington Post reported that more than 20 strikes on Russian oil infrastructure in 2026 had cost Moscow over $7 billion. The Ukrainians have hit almost all the major refineries in European Russia and the Urals at least once, and they have also damaged the country’s largest refinery located in Omsk (Siberia), according to John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST). Lough estimated that the total losses incurred through damage to refineries, lost production, and overall disruption are likely around $20 billion. However, analysis by Reuters in July found that Russia’s oil and gas revenue had increased by 60 per cent compared to the year before due to the increase in global oil prices. The loss of oil prices is also putting further pressure on global oil supplies already strained by the ongoing war in Iran, which has seen the Strait of Hormuz largely shut since March. The effectiveness of Ukraine’s strategy in the long run may depend on multiple factors. Lough suggested that the main value of the attacks is psychological, as they have brought the war home to Russians who were previously insulated from it and made them question why the country is so poorly defended when the war was supposed to improve Russia’s security. He also noted that the authorities had to remove the Yabloko party from last weekend’s Duma elections, as it was the only party campaigning for ending the war against Ukraine. The party was expected to receive only a tiny proportion of the vote, but the authorities concluded that its message risked resonating among the electorate. For Ukraine, the strategy has been a double-edged sword. Russia has stepped up its air campaign and has stopped the operation of the Black Sea ports, a lifeline for the Ukrainian economy. It has also intensified its attacks on other economic assets across the country.