The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is reshaping the political landscape of the region and drawing African countries into a growing cluster of tensions around the Red Sea. This shift is being driven by several overlapping crises, including U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran, the resumption of Houthi attacks on shipping lanes, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Horn of Africa, and disputes over influence among African states. These issues are particularly concerning for African nations that border the Red Sea, as the instability threatens their security and economic interests.
The growing competition between regional powers has raised questions about the ability of the United States to protect its traditional allies in the Gulf. In response, regional actors such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have adopted more assertive strategies. While they had previously coordinated security efforts against Iran, their differences over regional leadership and governance have led to a breakdown in that cooperation. The UAE has expanded its influence through major investments in ports and infrastructure and by supporting armed groups in Yemen, Sudan, Libya, and Somalia. It has also deepened its ties with Israel since the 2020 Abraham Accords. In contrast, Saudi Arabia has focused on supporting state authorities and forming alliances with countries that share its positions, including Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey, in an effort to counter the UAE's influence.
The strategic importance of African countries bordering the Red Sea has increased, as they offer access to ports, airports, and security partnerships. Ethiopia, a landlocked country, has long sought access to the Red Sea to reduce its reliance on Djibouti. The port of Berbera in Somaliland was of particular interest to Ethiopia because the UAE-backed company DP World had already developed it as a key economic and transport hub. However, a 2024 agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland aimed at regulating Ethiopia's access to the sea under Somalia's authority has not fully removed Ethiopia from external rivalries. Turkey has played a key role as a mediator between Ethiopia and Somalia, while the UAE maintains strong ties with Ethiopia and Somaliland. Recent revelations about training and logistics networks in Ethiopia that support the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on behalf of the UAE have further strained relations, despite denials from both Ethiopia and the UAE.
Egypt holds a critical position in the region, controlling the Suez Canal and possessing strong military and naval capabilities. Any disruption in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, directly impacts Egypt's economy and security. Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia have increased since the launch of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in 2025 and the planning of additional dams on the Blue Nile. Cairo has challenged Ethiopia's maritime claims and its management of the Blue Nile, while strengthening ties with Eritrea. Gulf countries are also interested in Sudan due to its ongoing conflict and its strategic location. Port Sudan is a key gateway for weapons and combatants, and while the UAE denies supporting the RSF, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have aligned more closely with the Sudanese Armed Forces. Meanwhile, the Somali federal government's decision to cut ties with the UAE in 2026 was rejected by Somaliland and other autonomous regions, which maintain relations with Abu Dhabi. Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have, however, strengthened their support for the federal government in Somalia.
The European Union is also active in the region, maintaining a significant maritime presence through operations like Aspides and Atalanta, which focus on protecting commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. In Somalia, the EU supports civilian and military training missions and works to improve maritime security and governance. However, Gulf support for regional actors often comes with conditions, such as access to ports and strategic infrastructure. As African states bordering the Red Sea align more closely with rival Gulf powers, the future of these partnerships and their impact on regional stability remain uncertain. While Gulf investments in ports and infrastructure are likely to continue, they may also lead to increased security coordination and military commitments. The challenge for African states will be to balance these relationships to promote development rather than deepen regional divisions.
Red Sea Tensions Draw African States into Regional Power Struggles
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