Abiy Ahmed sworn in for second term

On October 5, Abiy Ahmed was sworn in for a second full term as Ethiopia's prime minister before the Ethiopian Parliament. In his speech, he emphasized the importance of securing maritime access for Ethiopia, stating that his government would pursue this goal based on a "give and take" principle, which he described as essential for the country's "civilization."

Regional powers reject Ethiopian maritime claims

The previous day, Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia met in New Alamein, Egypt. The four countries issued a joint statement asserting that the governance of the Red Sea belongs exclusively to the riparian states. They also rejected any actions that could interfere with Egypt and Sudan's use of the Nile waters.

Ethiopia defends its maritime position

The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the regional powers' stance, arguing that discussions on maritime access should consider Ethiopia's geographical proximity to the Red Sea and the fact that the Blue Nile originates in its territory. This has been a long-standing point of contention in regional diplomacy.

Ethiopia's landlocked status and trade costs

Ethiopia lost its direct access to the sea in 1993 after Eritrea's independence, making it the world's most populous landlocked country. Since then, nearly all of its foreign trade has passed through Djibouti, with the Institute of International Affairs in Addis Ababa estimating that port services cost between 1.5 and 2 billion dollars annually—nearly a third of Ethiopia's projected 2025 export revenues.

Diversification of Ethiopia's trade routes

To reduce its reliance on Djibouti, Ethiopia has begun exploring alternative trade routes. Discussions have taken place with Kenya regarding the Lamu port and with Somaliland regarding the Berbera port. However, this agreement with Somaliland has caused tension with Somalia, which claims the territory of Somaliland.

Regional agreements and Eritrean withdrawal

By the end of 2025, Egypt signed agreements with Djibouti, including a new container terminal. According to the Emirati newspaper The National, Egypt may have also signed an agreement to modernize the Eritrean port of Assab, though this has not been officially confirmed. In December 2025, Eritrea withdrew from IGAD, the regional organization of the Horn of Africa, further complicating regional dynamics.

Resurgence of conflict in Tigré

The security situation in Ethiopia has worsened, with fighting resuming in Tigré between the federal army and the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Federal forces retook the city of Mekele in early October, and Eritrean troops have been deployed in northern Tigré. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of supporting the rebels, a claim Eritrea denies, calling it a pretext to justify breaking diplomatic relations.

Red Sea tensions and maritime disruptions

In the Red Sea, the Houthis declared a blockade targeting Saudi Arabia in the Bab el-Mandeb strait as part of the broader conflict involving the United States and Iran. The African Strategic Studies Center reported twelve attacks or attempted attacks on commercial ships, with Red Sea shipping traffic remaining below a third of its pre-October 2023 levels.